Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

072 
WWAK62 PAFC 162340
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 PM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2014

AKZ161-171545-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140518T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
340 PM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
STRONG WIND IN BRISTOL BAY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH IN 
  THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 19 TO 25 PERCENT...DRIEST INLAND.

* TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPERATURES 67 TO 75
  DEGREES...WARMEST INLAND.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS
  UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO
  NEAR 20.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

KOCHEVAR

814 
WWAK62 PAFC 171457
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
657 AM AKDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE WAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
AND DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A SECOND
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY REINFORCING THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON SUNDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL THE
WAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AKZ161-180700-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140518T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
657 AM AKDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR
STRONG WIND FOR BRISTOL BAY...

* 20 FT WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 35 PERCENT...DRIEST INLAND.

* TEMPERATURES...65 TO 75 DEGREES...WARMEST INLAND.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
  AFTERNOON AND PEAK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
  WILL QUICKLY DROP AS THE WINDS COME UP WITH LOWEST VALUES DURING
  THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ENOUGH WIND
  WILL REMAIN THAT HUMIDITIES WILL NOT COMPLETELY RECOVER SATURDAY
  NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

716 
WWAK62 PAFC 172324
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
324 PM AKDT SAT MAY 17 2014

AKZ161-181630-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140520T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
324 PM AKDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...

* 20 FT WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 
  MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT...DRIEST INLAND.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 3PM AND
  MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF WINDS DURING THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SLOW AND MODEST RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
  HUMIDITY DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE
  REGION. THE STRONG WIND TREND DIMINISHES MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE
  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

JAM

219 
WWAK62 PAFC 181503
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
703 AM AKDT SUN MAY 18 2014

AKZ161-190200-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140520T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
703 AM AKDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...

* 20 FT WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 
  MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT...DRIEST INLAND.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 3PM AND
  MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF WINDS DURING THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SLOW AND MODEST RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
  HUMIDITY DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE
  REGION. THE STRONG WIND TREND DIMINISHES MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE
  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ152-190200-
/O.NEW.PAFC.FW.A.0011.140519T2100Z-140520T0800Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
703 AM AKDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR STRONG WIND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 12 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 27 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...55 TO 60.

* TIMING...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY
  AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
  VALUES...MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
  THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RECOVER TO 40
  TO 60 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND
THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

523 
WWAK62 PAFC 190000
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP INTENSIFY OFFSHORE WINDS 
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...AND
WILL REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE ALSO STEADILY DROPPED AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AFTER RH RECOVERY INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT...CONTINUED STRONG NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY...WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS A FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA.


AKZ152-190100-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FW.A.0011.140519T2100Z-140520T0800Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW RH VALUES WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS.

$$

AKZ161-191600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140520T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT...DRIEST INLAND.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...BEFORE
  DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
  THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE MONDAY
  NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

099 
WWAK62 PAFC 191513
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
713 AM AKDT MON MAY 19 2014

AKZ161-200200-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140520T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
713 AM AKDT MON MAY 19 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT
FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT...DRIEST INLAND.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP BY THE MID AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
  HEATING COMMENCES. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS
  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
  RECOVER DURING THE LATE EVENING AS WINDS SLACKEN AND
  TEMPERATURES FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

880 
WWAK62 PAFC 200002
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
402 PM AKDT MON MAY 19 2014

.RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE...AS THE GUSTY AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
RH VALUES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING SLIGHTLY
LOWER TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...AND WHILE SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS...THE
THREAT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. MEANWHILE...RH
VALUES OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY RECOVERING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY WILL SPREAD MORE CLOUDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING RH VALUES
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AKZ161-200800-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140520T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
402 PM AKDT MON MAY 19 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT
FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH LATE
  THIS EVENING BEFORE RH VALUES RECOVER BY LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

495 
WWAK62 PAFC 200808
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1208 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

AKZ161-200915-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140520T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
1208 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY...

WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF AND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING WHICH WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CONTINUE IMPROVING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
542 AM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING
SEA CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO THE ALCAN
BORDER...SUPPORTING PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN BERING. THE MARINE LAYER IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...BRINGING PATCHY FOG TO AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE
COMING PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA AND PUSHES THE RIDGE WESTWARD
INTO THE BERING. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A RELATIVELY WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
HELP TO REDEVELOP OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.
THE NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE IN
DEPICTING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AS IT DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ON SUNDAY. GENERAL PREFERRED THE NAM EARLY ON FOR ITS
SUPERIOR HANDLING OF OUTFLOW WINDS AND THEN TRANSITIONED TOWARDS
EC LATER ON IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IS IN STORE BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD AND A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH FORMING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS OVER
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING HELPS TO MAINTAIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO
REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH
RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE TEENS...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND
MOISTURE INCREASES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A SIMILAR STORY TO THAT OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS AS FIRE WEATHER OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS. WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
GIVEN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND RH VALUES LIKELY STILL HOVERING
AROUND 30 PERCENT DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP PATCHY FOG OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO THE BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE
BERING AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE IMMINENT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BERING AS RIDGING REMAINS
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 125 141 145.

&&

CB MAY 14