Small Craft Advisory 374, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
144 PM AKDT WED MAY 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TODAY WITH THE LOW IN THE
GULF NOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE POLE. THE MAIN ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH IS NOW
BEING CONNECTED WITH A LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA WITH
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE ARE TWO MAIN FEATURES OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE FIRST IS A LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEST OF THIS LOW THERE IS A
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WHICH HAS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE
SHAPING UP SOUTH OF THE GULF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS MOST
LIKELY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT TO THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA BY THAT TIME.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE GRADIENT WILL HAVE REVERSED FROM WHAT IT IS PRESENTLY AND THIS
WILL BRING SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS TO LOCATION ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THIS ALSO WILL USHER IN MORE WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRATUS IN THE COOK INLET
REGION TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA GIVES
AN UP INLET PUSH. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE STRATUS. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE MOVING FARTHER NORTH COUPLED WITH
THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD KEEP STRATUS OUT OF
THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS A MIXED BAG WITH SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
PERSISTING ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...BUT DISSIPATING
INLAND AS THE DAY HEATS UP. THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...EXCEPT OVER THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS.
IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THERE IS MORE OVERALL CLOUD COVER AND
MORE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THOUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE BY THURSDAY AND BRING IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE PATTERN OF VARIED BUT BENIGN WEATHER
AROUND. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITION WITH
SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME PARTLY SUNNY
BREAKS AS WELL AS MOST OF THE AREA IS NOT PACKED SOLID WITH
STRATUS AND THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THESE PARTLY SUNNY BREAKS.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE
STATE. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

MAY 14