Small Craft Advisory 362, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
132 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH AN THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER. AN
UPPER LOW IS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST RUSSIA WITH A LEADING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT
WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AFTER ABOUT
60 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RUSSIAN LOW TO EXPAND SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA CREATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE. SOME SHOWERS WILL EVEN BE
POSSIBLE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

ON MONDAY THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTAINS WILL PUSH NORTH. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK ISLAND
BY LATE MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE CLOUD COVER. ON LATE MONDAY THE FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL REACH BRISTOL BAY...THEN SPREAD NORTH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

LUDWIG MAY 14