Flood Watch 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

693 
WGAK68 PAFC 041634
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
834 AM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2014

AKZ155-042300-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140504T2300Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
834 AM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT TULUKSAK AND AKIAK...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT TULUKSAK AND AKIAK.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* AN ICE JAM HAS FORMED AT THE BREAKUP FRONT APPROXIMATELY 10 
  MILES UPSTREAM OF TULUKSAK. WATER LEVELS ARE RISING UPSTREAM 
  OF THE ICE JAM AND HAVE GONE OUT OF BANK IN SEVERAL PLACES. 
  APPROXIMATELY 15 MILES OF CHUNK ICE IS BACKED UP AGAINST THE 
  ICE JAM. ONCE THE ICE JAM RELEASES RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT A 
  RAPID RISE OF WATER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM IN TULUKSAK WITH 
  FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE. SHEET ICE WITH SOME 
  MOVEMENT AND OPEN LEADS REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE ICE JAM 
  AND THE KUSKOKUAC CHANNEL. WITH THE RELEASE OF THE JAM... 
  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SECOND ICE JAM TO FORM BETWEEN TULUKSAK 
  AND AKIAK CAUSING WATERS TO RISE MORE RAPIDLY IN AREAS ABOVE 
  THE SECOND ICE JAM. 

* CURRENTLY WATER LEVELS IN TULUKSAK ARE WITHIN BANKS BUT HAVE 
  BEEN RISING STEADILY FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS. WATER LEVELS WILL 
  CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE ICE MOVES PAST THE VILLAGE AND MAY 
  FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

412 
WGAK68 PAFC 042302
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2014

AKZ155-050015-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140504T2300Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
302 PM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2014

...FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT TULUKSAK AND
AKIAK HAS EXPIRED.

THE ICE JAM WHICH FORMED SATURDAY UPSTREAM OF TULUKSAK CAUSED
SOME LOCAL WATER LEVELS TO RISE OUT OF BANKS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. 
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ICE JAM HAS
RELEASED. ICE WAS OBSERVED MOVING SMOOTHLY PAST BOTH TULUKSAK AND
AKIAK TODAY. THE IMMEDIATE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING FOR
DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED.

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
132 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH AN THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER. AN
UPPER LOW IS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST RUSSIA WITH A LEADING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT
WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AFTER ABOUT
60 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RUSSIAN LOW TO EXPAND SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA CREATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE. SOME SHOWERS WILL EVEN BE
POSSIBLE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

ON MONDAY THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTAINS WILL PUSH NORTH. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK ISLAND
BY LATE MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE CLOUD COVER. ON LATE MONDAY THE FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL REACH BRISTOL BAY...THEN SPREAD NORTH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

LUDWIG MAY 14