Small Craft Advisory 281, NWS Anchorage, AK

468 
FZAK51 PAFC 062322
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071245-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SLIDE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MON EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-071245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-071245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-071245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-071245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-071245-
PORT VALDEZ-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-071245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-071245-
VALDEZ ARM-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-071245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-071245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-071245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-071245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-071245-
CHINIAK BAY-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-071245-
MARMOT BAY-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-071245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-071245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-071245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-071245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
322 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
112 PM AKDT SAT APR 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND FAR
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THAT STRETCHES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 30N. AN
UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE LOWS SCATTERED AROUND THE GULF...WITH THE
MOST DISCERNIBLE CENTERS NORTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND ALONG THE
COAST EAST OF CORDOVA. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST IS
FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INLAND. OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA... LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING...WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS
BRINGING MORE STEADY/STRATIFORM SNOW TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
FURTHER WEST...NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE FAR WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT HAVE ALL
SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEMGLB ARE EVEN SLOWER
THAN THE AMERICAN MODELS (GFS/NAM). GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
MOVEMENT TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...THE THINKING IS THAT TIMING
MAY CONTINUE TO SLIP BACKWARDS...THUS THE ECMWF/GEM ARE THE
FAVORED MODELS IN THE PREPARATION OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE
GFS ALSO HAS A DIFFERENT HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GULF MONDAY MORNING...MOVING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
INTO THE COAST WEST OF YAKUTAT...WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS CARRY
THIS FEATURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. GIVEN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
JET...THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST MAKES MORE SENSE
AND IS PREFERRED TODAY. OVERALL...THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE IN THE OVERALL MODELING OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT PUSHING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE WHOLE
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS TO HAVE INCREASING SUCCESS MAKING IT OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS INTO AREAS LIKE ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...THOUGH (AS
MENTIONED ABOVE) THE EXPECTED ONSET OF STEADY PRECIPITATION FROM
KENAI UP TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED BACK.
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING WILL BE WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ASCENT. MEANWHILE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESS NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT
ONSET WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY (DIURNAL
HEATING)...BUT WILL DEFINITELY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH IS WHEN SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW REMAINS LIKELY. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME KEY DETAILS UP IN THE AIR...THE BOTTOM LINE
REMAINS THAT ALL THE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR ANCHORAGE TO SEE SNOWFALL
(MID- LEVEL TROUGH...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND NO DOWNSLOPING) ARE
PRESENT...SO THE CHALLENGE GOING FORWARD WILL FOCUS ON TIMING AND
SEVERITY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO OPPOSE
FORWARD MOVEMENT. STEADY (ALBEIT LIGHT) SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE BETHEL AREA...BUT THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR CURRENTLY HANGING OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING AND HELP THIS AIRMASS MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT AND BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN A SIGNIFICANT
WAY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING WILL GENERALLY STAY IN A SHOWERY NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAPERING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN BERING WILL
SEE A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH LITTLE
SUCCESS...INSTEAD STALLING AND WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING ALTERNATING PERIODS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS/RAIN WITH MORE BENIGN (BUT STILL CLOUDY) CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND BY MIDWEEK...WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALLOWING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO RETURN TO MOST
AREAS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

AMD APR 14