Small Craft Advisory 268, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
118 PM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING
STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH ALOFT IS EASILY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES AS THE MATURE STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SITS IN PLACE AND ELONGATES RATHER THAN MAKE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SITS JUST NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND
AND STRETCHES SOUTHEAST TOWARD JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WHILE
MOST OF THE MAINLAND IS STILL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT SPINS OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WITH THIS
FEATURES ARE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE...KEEPING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE SURFACE. OUT
WEST...THE FRONT WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS
BEING GUSTY WINDS FROM THE AKPEN THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN.
DESPITE A STRONG BLOCK SET UP OVER THE BERING SEA...GUIDANCE IS
INSISTENT ON BREAKING IT DOWN WITH A SHORTWAVE REINVIGORATING THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH AND A NEW UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
CONVERGING ON THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE GONE AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IN THE
GULF...CLEAR CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF IS STAYING PUT AS WELL AS
ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SEASONABLE  FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...THEN SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEW BERING SEA LOW TAKES SHAPE. SOME
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE INTERIOR MAINLAND WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE TIME BEING WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY
NEAR BRISTOL BAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THOUGH INCREASING AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AND DISTURBANCES APPROACH
WITH THE BEST CHANCE COMING LATE THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER BERING
FRONT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AS THE PREVIOUS FRONT DISSIPATES ANOTHER MOVES IN TO TAKE ITS
PLACE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY FORECASTABLE WITH MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. CHANCES
FOR A RETURN IN CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BERING SEA LOW SHIFTS
TOWARD THE GULF AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

MTL APR 14