Small Craft Advisory 267, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
143 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ANOTHER BLUEBIRD DAY FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND AS THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TODAY IS A LARGE...DEEP...STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WITH THE
OCCLUDED SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA SOUTHEAST
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THERE IS A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH LOOKS TO
PLAY A PART OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CLOSING OFF OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND BLOCKING THE PATTERN
ONCE AGAIN. THOUGH THIS TIME THE REX BLOCK WILL SET UP FAR ENOUGH
WESTWARD TO ALLOW TROUGHING AND COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL. AGAIN GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BREAK
DOWN THE BLOCKING HIGH MUCH TO QUICKLY SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
LOWER IN THE SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A LOOK AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD LEAD YOU TO BELIEVE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WAS ON
THE WAY. HOWEVER THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE STOPPED AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
CLEAR...DRY...AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KODIAK ISLAND COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TOMORROW...THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE ISLAND SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE MAINLAND LIES JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT WITH A MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING OVERHEAD. THE
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND WEAKEN TOMORROW ONLY RESULTING
IN ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...MAINLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FRONT SHOULD WASH
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX
BERING SEA LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS USHERING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT PERIOD AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE CHAIN TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE
CURRENT BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE BERING STRAIT.
IT LOOKS TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND
WHILE BEING FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW WEAK TROUGHING AND COLDER AIR
TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

MTL
MAR 14