Small Craft Advisory 177, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1100 AM AKST FRI FEB 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS (MONDAY
AFTERNOON). THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW MOVING AND FAIRLY
STABLE PATTERN THAT IS OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE NATURALLY SOME
DIFFERENCES IN SMALL SCALE FEATURES...BUT OVER-ALL THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE EASTERN ALASKA RIDGE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN PUSH WEST
INTO THE BERING SEA ON MONDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CYCLONIC ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST. THIS IS ALSO DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND ANOTHER LOW DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THE AREA WILL STILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY...BUT SOME
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE
NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO PROTECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS THE MAIN HIGH PUSHES INTO THE
BERING SEA.

FOR THE ALEUTIANS...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL SEND A FRONT
INTO THE ALEUTAINS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MONDAY. THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY STRONG SYSTEM. SOME
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN THE MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS...AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172 174 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 14