Small Craft Advisory 176, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
201 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ALASKA. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING SEA
HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS AND THE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION... THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS (SUNDAY AFTERNOON). THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND DETAILS OF A LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST... FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE BARREN
ISLANDS FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS QUITE WARM. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE EASTERN ALASKA RIDGE WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA KEEPING THE AREA DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KODIAK ISLAND.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE NORTH
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT TO
THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE RIDGE
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND PROTECT
IT FROM ANY STORM SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150 155 172 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 14