Small Craft Advisory 175, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER ALASKA...CENTERED
ALONG THE YUKON BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE BERING SEA
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. TWO
NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...ONE IS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE OTHER ONE IS LINED UP ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE OVER-ALL PATTERN BUT
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON SOME DETAILS. SPECIFICALLY THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE ELONGATING/SPLITTING SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT THAT RUNS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THE GFS (AND THE GEM TO SOME EXTENT) AREA
LEAVING A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS (ECMWF/UKMET/NAM) ARE
BRINGING THE ENTIRE LOW LOW INTO THE BERING SEA BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE BEHIND THE OTHER
MODELS THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF/NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE MAIN DRIVING FEATURE OF THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALONG THE YUKON BORDER. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
SLOWLY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH RATHER THAN NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THE GULF/BARREN ISLANDS FRONT WILL MEANDER ABOUT THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN SLIDE NORTH AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATANUSKA-SUSITNA AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL MAINLY BE RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY WARM WITH THE HIGH
HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVEN
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE BASICALLY DRY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS WILL MAINLY BE RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW DUE TO THE WARM
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 150 160 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 14