Gale Warning 222, NWS Anchorage, AK

805 
FZAK52 PAFC 280011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281300-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 60 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KIPNUK LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE LATE FRI MORNING. A 989 MB
LOW 270 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WILL MOVE TO 150 NM WEST OF
GAMBELL FRI EVENING AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-281300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT S 35 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING T0 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281300-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281300-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-281300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-281300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-281300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE... 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-281300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-281300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-281300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKST THU FEB 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SW WIND 25 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER ALASKA...CENTERED
ALONG THE YUKON BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE BERING SEA
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. TWO
NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...ONE IS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE OTHER ONE IS LINED UP ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE OVER-ALL PATTERN BUT
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON SOME DETAILS. SPECIFICALLY THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE ELONGATING/SPLITTING SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT THAT RUNS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THE GFS (AND THE GEM TO SOME EXTENT) AREA
LEAVING A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS (ECMWF/UKMET/NAM) ARE
BRINGING THE ENTIRE LOW LOW INTO THE BERING SEA BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE BEHIND THE OTHER
MODELS THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF/NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE MAIN DRIVING FEATURE OF THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALONG THE YUKON BORDER. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
SLOWLY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH RATHER THAN NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THE GULF/BARREN ISLANDS FRONT WILL MEANDER ABOUT THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN SLIDE NORTH AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATANUSKA-SUSITNA AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL MAINLY BE RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY WARM WITH THE HIGH
HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVEN
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE BASICALLY DRY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS WILL MAINLY BE RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW DUE TO THE WARM
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 150 160 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 14