Small Craft Advisory 1049, NWS Anchorage, AK

654 
FZAK52 PAFC 301214
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310030-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTH OF MEKORYUK WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB OVER
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A 951 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL
APPROACH 410 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ATTU THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
TO 400 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU WED AFTERNOON AT 963 MB.

$$

PKZ150-310030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-310030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT
BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-310030-
BRISTOL BAY-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-310030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-310030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-310030-
UNALASKA BAY-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W 15 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-310030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-310030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-310030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-310030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-310030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-310030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-310030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25
FT W OF SHEMYA...SEAS 17 FT FROM SHEMYA E. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ179-310030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-310030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT IN THE MORNING. FROM CAPE NEWENHAM S...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING
SW IN THE AFTERNOON SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-310030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-310030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
314 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... S 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
513 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SPRAWLING BROAD TROUGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA
CONTINUES TO ACCEPT ENERGY FROM THE EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN
JET AND SEND IT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WHERE IT IS THEN TURNED
NORTHWARD BY A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THE
SETUP HAS ENABLED WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE SUBTROPICS/MID-LATITUDES
TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND PROVIDE FUEL FOR THE JET TO FEED STORM
SYSTEMS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THUS FAR THE
FIREHOSE HAS BEEN POINTED AT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BUT IS
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN TELLS MORE OF THE STORY. OBSERVATIONS
IN THE CANADIAN YUKON SHOW A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE WHILE THE MOST
OF THE BERING SEA TROUGH SITS JUST BELOW 1000 MB. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF THAT ARE ACCELERATED THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
GAPS BRINGING GUSTS IN THE 50 MPH RANGE FOR INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY.
THERMALLY...A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHES FROM KODIAK ISLAND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC WHILE THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS SPREADING OVER THE KENAI RANGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PRETTY LOCKED IN TO THE CURRENT PATTERN
DESPITE ITS HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS SEEMS TO ONLY BE RESOLUTION RELATED WITH THE COARSER
GUIDANCE NOT CATCHING ON TO THE EXTREME DOWNSLOPE SCENARIO. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WERE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...WHERE TRACK WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE AREA. THE LATEST
INCARNATIONS (00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE) SEEM TO HAVE SETTLED IN ON A
TRACK JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (MON DECEMBER 29 - TUE
DECEMBER 30)...

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THIS MORNING...WITH A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A STRONG
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...WITH STRONG
EAST SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS IMPACTING THE FAVORED LOCATIONS AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING TURNAGAIN ARM...THE MAT VALLEY...PORTAGE
VALLEY...AND PASSAGE CANAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK NORTH...WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM BY THIS EVENING...WITH
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER
HILLSIDE AROUND ANCHORAGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER KODIAK AND THE COASTAL KENAI
PENINSULA...WITH SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD VALDEZ AND
THOMPSON PASS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX DRAMATICALLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BERING LOW SHIFTS NORTH...WHICH WILL HELP
DRIVE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP COOK INLET...WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS MOVING THROUGH ANCHORAGE TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY WEDNESDAY. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE
MORE PRONE TO RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INLAND
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BROAD AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE
FIRST OF THE FRONTAL WAVES HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND CLEAR OF THE
AREA ALLOWING THE EAST TO SOUTH EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER EVEN IN BETWEEN WAVES WINDS IN ZONE 161
ARE STILL GUSTING 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION
SITES. THE NEXT WAVE...A SURFACE LOW AROUND 985 MB WILL CROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS
EVENING. WHILE THIS LOWS TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE IT IS DEEPER AND HAS BETTER JET SUPPORT SO STILL
SHOULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS WAVE. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE THE GUSTS IN THE 70 TO 75 MPH
IN THE RANGE ARE STILL REASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN THE NON DOWNSLOPING REGIONS RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
WITH SNOW IN INLAND LOCATION SUCH AS PORTIONS OF 152.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING A SOMEWHAT QUIETER IF BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THE NEXT RATHER POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
AS A 950 MB LOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A
BROAD SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY DEC 31 - SUNDAY JANUARY 4)...

ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNFOLDING ACROSS ALASKA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING DEAMPLIFIES AND
TRACKS EAST INTO THE YUKON THURSDAY. A POCKET OF COLDER AIR
ORIGINATING FROM SIBERIA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH A PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGETIC WAVE GETTING CAUGHT UP ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE THE SHIFT IN THIS PERIOD FROM
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER AIR/SURFACE
PATTERN...AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MERGE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE ALCAN. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COPPER
BASIN AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY MUDDIES THE OVERALL PATTERN HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING
HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA...BUT LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A RETROGRADING LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM
THE YUKON. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN TENDS TO REMAIN DRIER AND
COLDER...HOWEVER...AND THERE SEEMS TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT WITH
THAT GENERAL THINKING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON UPPER LOW PLACEMENT...AND THAT IS CURRENTLY
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE SUBTLE DETAILS THAT FAR OUT.

&&

AHSENMACHER
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 161.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 125 129 132 136-139 141 150 160 165 180.
         STORM 130 131 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AHSENMACHER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...AHSENMACHER