Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2014
Gale Warning 794, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Dec 30, 2014, 3:06 AM AKST. It was in force for 50 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 30, 2014, 3:06 AM AKST (12:06 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 1, 2015, 5:15 AM AKST
- In force
- 50 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
504 FZAK62 PAFC 301206 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 306 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-310230- 306 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 985 MB LOW NEAR 58N 167W WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB NEAR 63N 169W THIS EVENING. A 951 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL APPROACH 49N 163E THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 56N 163E WED AFTERNOON AT 963 MB. $$ PKZ411-310230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 306 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 12 TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. .THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. .SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. $$ PKZ412-310230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 306 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 ...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. $$ PKZ413-310230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 306 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN. .WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. .THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. $$ PKZ414-310230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 306 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 .TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
305 FZAK62 PAFC 310012 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 312 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-311400- 312 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 989 MB LOW NEAR 61N 169W WILL WEAKEN TO 998 MB NEAR 65N 168W LATE TONIGHT. A 951 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL APPROACH 54N 165E WED MORNING THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER RUSSIA THROUGH WED NIGHT. $$ PKZ411-311400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 312 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 12 INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. .THU...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. .FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. $$ PKZ412-311400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 312 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. .FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ413-311400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 312 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN. .THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. .FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ414-311400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 312 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2014 .TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. .WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN. .THU...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. $$
604 FZAK62 PAFC 311158 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 258 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-010245- 258 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 951 MB KAMCHATKA LOW NEAR 53N 164E WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING TODAY. A NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH 48N 162E AT 960 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 53N 165E LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH FRI. $$ PKZ411-010245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 258 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .THU...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. .FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. .SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. $$ PKZ412-010245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 258 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. .SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ413-010245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 258 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ414-010245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 258 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 .TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. $$
487 FZAK62 PAFC 312351 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-011415- 251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING SEA THU. A 984 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY TO 963 MB AS IT TRACKS TO 57N 164E FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT AND FRI. $$ PKZ411-011415- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. .SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. $$ PKZ412-011415- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...S TO W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. .FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. .SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. $$ PKZ413-011415- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ414-011415- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 251 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2014 .TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 29, 4:26 PM AKST, 10 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 29, 4:26 PM AKST, 10 hours 40 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FIREHOSE OF SORTS IS BRINGING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
ALASKA FROM ABOUT 20N...JUST AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...CONTINUES
TO FALL OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE MOISTURE
IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH...THE PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THROUGH THE CHANNELED
TERRAIN OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...AND ARE IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT 60 HOURS...WITH A MUCH BROADER/WEAKER
LOW OVER THE GULF. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME VERY
MINOR DIFFERENCES...BUT THEY HAVE LESSENED EVEN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. OVERALL WE WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE NAM AND GEM-
REGIONAL FOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT WIND TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH TUE
MORNING...REACHING WARNING LEVELS ALONG WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR ANCHORAGE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
OVERNIGHT WARMING TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RAIN AT SEA LEVEL ALONG THE
COAST WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
ABOVE VALDEZ...BUT CROSS BARRIER FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANCHORAGE FAIRLY
DRY UNTIL LATER ON TUE. ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT LOWER
LEVELS. OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ON TUE...BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY)...WE ARE IN THE HEART OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS
EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS...BOTH CALMER WINDS AND LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK IN DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF BRISTOL BAY LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
MOVING IT QUICKLY NORTH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE WINDS THAT REMAIN ELEVATED
THIS AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL ALSO START TO COME DOWN DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
AROUND WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SHORTWAVES
REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. WE WILL SEE
A SLOW TRANSITION FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO USHER IN SOME COOLER
AIR. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FIREHOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STARTS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST INLAND FROM THE BERING LATE WEDNESDAY...SO
WE WILL KEEP SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS HEALS FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...THINGS
REMAIN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE BERING...BUT
RELATIVELY QUIET ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING TUE INTO WED BRINGING ONLY A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A
DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUE. MODELS
TAKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS STORM DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND 950
MB...WHICH IS VERY SEASONABLE FOR LATE DECEMBER. THIS LOOKS TO BE
A FAIRLY CLASSIC SET-UP WITH A WARM FRONT/OCCLUSION BRINGING A
QUICK SHOT OF STORM FORCE WINDS TUE EVENING INTO WED MORNING FOR
SHEMYA AND ATKA AND ADAK. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT COLD AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THIS LOW. BUT NOW THE CANADIAN MODEL IS HINTING AT
THIS COLD AIR LEADING TO A SMALL BUT STRONG LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN
THIS COLD AIR. WE WILL MONITOR THE OTHER MODELS TO SEE IF
CONSENSUS MOVES IN THAT DIRECTION ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF
THURSDAY...THEN TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL STEADILY
CHANGE FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AS THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY. THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE LOW TRACKS BACK WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL AIDE IN FILTERING IN
COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM NORTHWEST CANADA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH SOLUTION OF
THE LOW TRACK VERIFIES. CURRENTLY THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE MODELS NOT YET HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF THURSDAY. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE
GFS BROUGHT THE LOW FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER WEST AND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CURRENT ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE THE
ONE THAT KEEPS SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
FURTHER WEST...A SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS WILL DEEPEN WHILE
TRACKING JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...OCCLUDING AS THEY
TRACK TOWARD/OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO RESUPPLY THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING WITH PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH SMALL BREAKS FROM
THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOUT AVERAGE OUT WEST...AS THERE ARE STILL
SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 161
MARINE...STORM 119 120 130 131 177 178
GALE 125 129 132 138 139 175 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MBS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...TPThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 3:01 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 62 hr | |
| Dec 29, 3:01 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Dec 29, 3:01 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Dec 29, 3:01 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Dec 29, 3:14 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Dec 29, 3:31 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 47 hr | |
| Dec 29, 3:31 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Dec 30, 3:14 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 49 hr | |
| Dec 30, 3:14 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Dec 30, 3:32 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Dec 30, 3:32 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 49 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.