Small Craft Advisory 104, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN FEB 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK
ISLAND. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW...WITH LOBES SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE LOW.
THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THAT IS GETTING "STRETCHED APART" AS IT RUNS INTO THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS
(WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON). THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED IN THE FAIRLY "BLOCKY"
PATTERN THAT WE ARE IN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY PROTECT
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE KODIAK LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND REACH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND RETREAT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS THE PARENT LOW DROPS IN TO THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE BLOCKING HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT BEAR AND GREAT SLAVE LAKES IN
CANADA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER HIGH WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE BERING SEA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY BUT WILL
BRING A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE RIDGE WILL NOT PROTECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW THAT MOVES
FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL KEEP MORE
MOISTURE IN THE AREA FOR MORE CLOUDS. FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE VERY
CYCLONIC FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY (AND INDEED
ANTICYCLONIC FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME) SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
FAIRLY LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS HIGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS LOW ARE
STILL BEING WORKED OUT BY THE MODELS...BUT THIS MAY BE A PRODUCER OF
SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND/OR SNOW AND SO BEARS WATCHING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 160 165 170 173 174 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 14