Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

374 
WWAK62 PAFC 202358
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

AKZ161-210500-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140521T0500Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
358 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

* 20 FT WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

* TIMING...STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
  HOURS. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW BEFORE RECOVERING ABOVE 30
  PERCENT BY LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ155-211600-
/O.NEW.PAFC.FW.A.0013.140522T2000Z-140523T0600Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
358 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR STRONG WIND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATION...LOWEST RH VALUES INLAND...STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
  COAST.

* 20 FT WINDS...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30
  MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOPING
  WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES
  WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  BEFORE RECOVERING THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND
THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

202 
WWAK62 PAFC 210446
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
846 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

AKZ161-210600-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140521T0500Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
846 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW CRITICAL VALUES
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH HUMIDITIES SLOWLY
RECOVERING TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT.

$$

AKZ155-212100-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.A.0013.140522T2000Z-140523T0600Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
846 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...

* LOCATION...LOWEST RH VALUES INLAND...STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
  COAST.

* 20 FT WINDS...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 
  MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOPING 
  WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RH 
  VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  EVENING BEFORE RECOVERING THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND
THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1040 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...
CONSIDERABLE SMOKE/HAZE ALONG A SWATH OF OF THE SW PENINSULA BEING
PRODUCED BY A FIRE NEAR SOLDOTNA. PREDOMINANT NORTH FLOW IS PUSHING
THIS SMOKE PLUME WELL TO THE SOUTH TO ENVELOP THE KACHEMAK BAY
AREA AND INTO ADJACENT MARINE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW
WRAPS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. HAVE
KEPT THIS SMOKE/HAZE MENTIONED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
RESIDUALLY IT COULD PERSIST LONGER.

FIRE WEATHER...
RE-ISSUED RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT MARGINALLY
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE. WINDS IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS ARE
PROGGED TO BE WEAKER...ALBEIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW.

JAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014/

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING WITH A
CLOSED LOW SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN GULF. TO THE WEST...A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN HAS SET UP WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BERING WITH
A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY IS NOW NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. ANOTHER
INTERESTING RADAR FEATURE THIS MORNING IS THE REFLECTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI...WHERE A SMOKE PLUME CAN BE SEEN STREAMING
SOUTH OF SOLDOTNA FROM A FIRE THAT STARTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...NORTHERN GULF AND
COOK INLET.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS LARGELY A PERSISTENTPATTERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE
NEEDED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE BERING. WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE BERING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING WILL BE SQUEEZED AT TIMES CAUSING GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN COAST. OTHERWISE...AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH COLDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUD FREE.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS RESIDE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TIGHTER GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING. DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITION PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL BREAK DOWN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST FROM ASIA. THE LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL ABSORB INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND. ONCE THIS
PATTERN IS UNDER WAY...THE JET STREAM MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EASTWARD TRACKING IT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MODELS
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...121 141 145

KH MAY 14