Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

258 
WWAK61 PAFC 201931
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1131 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014


AKZ111-210500-
/O.EXA.PAFC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140521T0500Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
1131 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WIND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
  ON A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
  HUMIDITY EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-210500-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140521T0500Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
1131 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...
  STRONGEST NEAR THE INLET IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
  DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 24 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
  ON A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
  HUMIDITY EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ141-210500-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140521T0500Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
1131 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 
  MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 28 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
  ON A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
  HUMIDITY EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ145-210500-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140521T0500Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
1131 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 24 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
  ON A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
  HUMIDITY EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

073 
WWAK61 PAFC 210502
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
902 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

AKZ111-121-141-145-210615-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140521T0500Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-COPPER RIVER BASIN-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
902 PM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
548 AM AKDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING WITH A
CLOSED LOW SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN GULF. TO THE WEST...A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN HAS SET UP WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BERING WITH
A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY IS NOW NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. ANOTHER
INTERESTING RADAR FEATURE THIS MORNING IS THE REFLECTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI...WHERE A SMOKE PLUME CAN BE SEEN STREAMING
SOUTH OF SOLDOTNA FROM A FIRE THAT STARTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...NORTHERN GULF AND
COOK INLET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS LARGELY A PERSISTENTPATTERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE
NEEDED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE BERING. WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE BERING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING WILL BE SQUEEZED AT TIMES CAUSING GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN COAST. OTHERWISE...AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH COLDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUD FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS RESIDE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TIGHTER GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING. DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITION PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL BREAK DOWN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST FROM ASIA. THE LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL ABSORB INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND. ONCE THIS
PATTERN IS UNDER WAY...THE JET STREAM MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EASTWARD TRACKING IT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MODELS
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

KH MAY 14