Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

049 
WWAK61 PAFC 060038
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 PM AKST WED FEB 5 2014

AKZ111-061645-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.140207T0300Z-140208T0900Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
338 PM AKST WED FEB 5 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ENTIRE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 40 TO 65 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 80 
  MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
  THURSDAY EVENING...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-061645-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.140207T0300Z-140208T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
338 PM AKST WED FEB 5 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG
  THE COAST.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN PEAK 
  FRIDAY DURING THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

725 
WWAK61 PAFC 061351
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 AM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

AKZ111-070600-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.140207T0300Z-140208T0900Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
451 AM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ENTIRE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 40 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 44 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
  THURSDAY EVENING...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-070600-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.140207T0300Z-140208T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
451 AM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH...STRONGEST 
  ALONG THE COAST. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 54 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN PEAK 
  FRIDAY DURING THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

720 
WWAK61 PAFC 070037
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 PM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

AKZ111-072100-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.140207T0300Z-140208T0900Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
337 PM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY
NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ENTIRE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 40 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 40 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...PEAKING LATE
  TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
  DIMINISHING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-072100-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.140207T0300Z-140208T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
337 PM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY
NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH...STRONGEST 
  ALONG THE COAST. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN PEAK 
  FRIDAY DURING THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

144 
WWAK61 PAFC 071427
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
527 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014

AKZ111-080230-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140208T0900Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
527 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...ENTIRE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 30 TO 55 MPH. GUSTS 65 TO 80 MPH THROUGH
  EARLY AFTERNOON. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 40 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-080230-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140208T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
527 AM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
  60 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE INLET. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 56 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
  THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

470 
WWAK61 PAFC 080101
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014

AKZ111-080900-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140208T0900Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
401 PM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...ENTIRE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 35 TO 55 MPH DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
  AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...30 TO 35 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT BY
  MIDNIGHT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-080900-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140208T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
401 PM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
  BY SATURDAY MORNING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...35 TO 45 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT BY
  MIDNIGHT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

242 
WWAK61 PAFC 080907
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1207 AM AKST SAT FEB 8 2014

AKZ111-081100-
/X.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140208T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.FW.W.0002.140208T0907Z-140208T1100Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
1207 AM AKST SAT FEB 8 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY... 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS EXTENDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...ENTIRE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 35 TO 55 MPH DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
  AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...30 TO 35 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT BY
  EARLY MORNING.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-081015-
/X.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140208T0900Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
1207 AM AKST SAT FEB 8 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE KENAI AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE RISING.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 AM AKST WED FEB 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK FLOW REGIME ALOFT AS
BACKGROUND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A LARGE
AND HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA...WITH A WEAKENING CLOSED HIGH OVER THE YUKON EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN ALASKA. A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF THE DATELINE...WITH A WEAK AND SHEARING OUT
UPPER ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN BERING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN
THE PROCESS OF TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH A LEFTOVER FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EVENTUALLY...THE LARGE PACIFIC LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT TODAY
AS IT TRACKS EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT BUILDING OVER
THE STATE TONIGHT. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND DEEP
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG IT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ALASKA THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG 985-990 MB LOW FORMING NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR WARNING LEVEL
GAP WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF COOK INLET INTO THE BARREN ISLAND...AND POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER OVER KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND
GFS WERE UTILIZED FOR THE FORECAST...WITH WPC IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH..

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN...WITH COLD AIR DRAINING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN GAPS NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF MOUNTAIN GAP WINDS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG JET MAX WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN
ALASKA...SPREADING CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AS A FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THE EVENING. A BRIEF SHOT OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING LOCAL WINDS
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW FORMS ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL FAVORED LOCATIONS
INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...THOMPSON PASS AND VALDEZ...COOK
INLET...SEWARD...WHITTIER...AND BROAD PASS. THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING
LEVEL WINDS EXISTS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING GULF LOW
ACCELERATE LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE VALLEY. VERY DRY AIR AND A MEAGRE
SNOW PACK WILL ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BLOWING DUST AND SILT WILL ALSO DEGRADE AIR QUALITY HEADING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FROM THE MAT VALLEY SOUTH.

FOR KODIAK ISLAND...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS...INCLUDING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. LOCAL PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND COLD NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO DUTCH HARBOR WILL DIMINISH
TODAY...WITH FOG AND STRATUS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY 9TH - SATURDAY 15TH)...

BY SUNDAY...A DEEP LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER ALASKA. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY GAP WINDS PUSHING THROUGH FAVORED MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION THREATS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. DRY WEATHER AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...AND BLOWING DUST AND SILT BLOWING THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA.

THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND NAEFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS...SNOW THREATS WILL INCREASE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 111.
MARINE...GALE 173-177.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH 111 121.

AHSENMACHER FEB 14