High Wind Watch 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

783 
WWAK71 PAFC 060029
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 PM AKST WED FEB 5 2014

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IN COMBINATION WITH A BUILDING HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS.

AKZ111-061530-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0003.140207T1200Z-140208T0100Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
329 PM AKST WED FEB 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...MATANUSKA VALLEY

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 80
  MPH.

* TIMING...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MATANUSKA
  VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT REACHING POSSIBLE WARNING LEVELS AFTER
  MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED 
  AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

553 
WWAK71 PAFC 061344
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 AM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IN COMBINATION WITH A BUILDING HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS.

AKZ111-070145-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0003.140207T1200Z-140208T0100Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0003.140207T1200Z-140208T0100Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
444 AM AKST THU FEB 6 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM AKST FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...MATANUSKA VALLEY

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MATANUSKA
  VALLEY TONIGHT REACHING WARNING LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
  WILL THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED 
  AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 AM AKST WED FEB 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK FLOW REGIME ALOFT AS
BACKGROUND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A LARGE
AND HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA...WITH A WEAKENING CLOSED HIGH OVER THE YUKON EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN ALASKA. A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF THE DATELINE...WITH A WEAK AND SHEARING OUT
UPPER ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN BERING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN
THE PROCESS OF TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH A LEFTOVER FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EVENTUALLY...THE LARGE PACIFIC LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT TODAY
AS IT TRACKS EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT BUILDING OVER
THE STATE TONIGHT. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND DEEP
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG IT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ALASKA THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG 985-990 MB LOW FORMING NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR WARNING LEVEL
GAP WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF COOK INLET INTO THE BARREN ISLAND...AND POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER OVER KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND
GFS WERE UTILIZED FOR THE FORECAST...WITH WPC IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH..

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN...WITH COLD AIR DRAINING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN GAPS NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF MOUNTAIN GAP WINDS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG JET MAX WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN
ALASKA...SPREADING CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AS A FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THE EVENING. A BRIEF SHOT OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING LOCAL WINDS
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW FORMS ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL FAVORED LOCATIONS
INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...THOMPSON PASS AND VALDEZ...COOK
INLET...SEWARD...WHITTIER...AND BROAD PASS. THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING
LEVEL WINDS EXISTS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING GULF LOW
ACCELERATE LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE VALLEY. VERY DRY AIR AND A MEAGRE
SNOW PACK WILL ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BLOWING DUST AND SILT WILL ALSO DEGRADE AIR QUALITY HEADING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FROM THE MAT VALLEY SOUTH.

FOR KODIAK ISLAND...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS...INCLUDING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. LOCAL PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND COLD NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO DUTCH HARBOR WILL DIMINISH
TODAY...WITH FOG AND STRATUS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY 9TH - SATURDAY 15TH)...

BY SUNDAY...A DEEP LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER ALASKA. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY GAP WINDS PUSHING THROUGH FAVORED MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION THREATS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. DRY WEATHER AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...AND BLOWING DUST AND SILT BLOWING THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA.

THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND NAEFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS...SNOW THREATS WILL INCREASE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 111.
MARINE...GALE 173-177.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH 111 121.

AHSENMACHER FEB 14