Gale Warning 867, NWS Anchorage, AK

874 
FZAK51 PAFC 300031
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301315-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-301315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING
SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-301315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-301315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-301315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-301315-
PORT VALDEZ-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-301315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-301315-
VALDEZ ARM-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-301315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-301315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-301315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 28
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-301315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-301315-
CHINIAK BAY-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-301315-
MARMOT BAY-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-301315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-301315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-301315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-301315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
331 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. JET ROUNDS THE RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND WITH SPEEDS UP TO 125 KT. THIS FLOW IS TAPPING
MOISTURE FROM 35N WHICH EXPLAINS THE WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF ALASKA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW COMPLEX IN THE WESTERN BERING
SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...PRECIP IN ALIGNED FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS
THE AKPEN NORTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY HAS LED TO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER WESTERN ALASKA THIS EVENING WITH SOME AREAS SWITCHING BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING UPON PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A STRONGER WARM PUSH ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN ALASKA EXPERIENCING RAIN. A STACKED LOW IS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AKPEN AND ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE. SOME STRONG GAP FLOWS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS
AND THEN STRENGTHENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OUTLIER IS THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL AT THIS TIME. THE BIG RIDGE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER THE
MAINLAND WEDNESDAY.

OF COURSE...DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE A BIT DIFFERENT. ONE OF
THE BIG DIFFERENCES IS THE STRUCTURE OF THE JET AS IT SWINGS INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE
COHESIVENESS OF THE JET STRUCTURE...THE WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PEAK OVER
HIGH WIND WARNING. ALL MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE FEATURE AT THE SAME SPEED
CURRENTLY. THEY ALSO HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...DUE TO THIS STRUCTURE DIFFERENCE AND WESTERN
POSITION...HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED.

THE EASTERN DOMAIN FAVORED THE NAM AND GFS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
WESTERN DOMAIN PREFERRED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SOME JET SUPPORT TO BRING A
GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO KODIAK ISLAND. AS THE
FRONT...BAROCLINIC ZONE...MOVES NORTH TO THE KENAI PENINSULA THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS...WESTERN KENAI WILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY OUTSIDE OF KACHEMAK BAY. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LOTS OF WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE TEMPERATURES AT LOWER LEVELS IS NOT AS WARM
WITH THIS FIRST WAVE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...SO EXPECT
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN PASS. A SECOND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC
MONDAY TO SWING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH AND TO THE COAST WITH
PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
BERING WITH A STRONG GRADIENT WIND THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS TO
KAMISHAK BAY. THIS WIND WILL LIFT NORTH TO ANCHORAGE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM...A HIGH
WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A SEASONABLY STRONG JET AROUND 110 TO 120
KTS WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA AS A SYNOPTIC TROUGH DIGS
EVEN DEEPER WITH COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A
COUPLE OF BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE DAYS AHEAD COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
FIRST THING IS THAT MOST OF THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SCOURED OUT AT
THIS POINT. ALMOST ALL PLACES HAVE TURNED OVER TO RAIN AND SHOULD
STAY RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SOME PLACES COULD
SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THE NEXT DIFFERENCE IS IN THE
WINDS FROM SUNDAY'S SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE ONE THE ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY. THE LOW TODAY IS RATHER DIFFUSE AND MOVING RIGHT THROUGH
BRISTOL BAY. THE ONE THAT FORMS TOMORROW IS FURTHER TO THE WEST
WITH A BIT STRONGER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH MEANS SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. TO ADDRESS THIS
POSSIBILITY WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...THE
POTENT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THAT PRODUCED NEAR-STORM FORCE
WINDS EARLIER TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THIS WILL KEEP THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND WHILE BROAD
NORTH TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE BERING. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN ON AND OFF WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH TO WEST FLOW. BY MID- DAY
TUESDAY ANOTHER STOUT LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR- STORM FORCE WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG LOW
WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD WHILE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...AND A
STRONG NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN
MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA...WITH WARM AIR RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK
IN THE FORM OF A WEAK CHINOOK. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
HELPS OFFSHORE FLOW BECOME MORE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 161
MARINE...STORM 130 131
         GALE 119 120 125 132 136 137 138 139 150 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...TP