Gale Warning 864, NWS Anchorage, AK

949 
FZAK52 PAFC 290021
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291300-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 998 MB LOW 75 NM EAST
OF COLD BAY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 982 MB 125 NM NORTH OF
ADAK AND A 980 MB 350 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL COMBINE INTO ONE
LOW AT 991 MB 450 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
TO DISSIPATE MON NIGHT AS A 950 MB LOW WORKS TO WITHIN 500 NM WEST
OF SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW AT 986 MB TO MOVE TO 150 NM
SOUTH OF COLD BAY MON AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 125 NM SOUTH OF
GAMBELL AS A 984 MB LOW.

$$

PKZ150-291300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-291300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-291300-
BRISTOL BAY-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-291300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-291300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-291300-
UNALASKA BAY-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-291300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-291300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-291300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-291300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-291300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-291300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ178-291300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ179-291300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-291300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-291300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-291300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...9 FT E
OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...7 FT E OF ST
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

094 
FZAK52 PAFC 290021 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291300-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 998 MB LOW 75 NM EAST
OF COLD BAY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 982 MB LOW 125 NM NORTH
OF ADAK AND A 980 MB LOW 350 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL COMBINE
INTO ONE LOW AT 991 MB 450 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW TO DISSIPATE MON NIGHT AS A 950 MB LOW WORKS TO WITHIN
500 NM WEST OF SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW AT 986 MB TO MOVE
TO 150 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY MON AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 125 NM
SOUTH OF GAMBELL AS A 984 MB LOW.

$$

PKZ150-291300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-291300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-291300-
BRISTOL BAY-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-291300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-291300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-291300-
UNALASKA BAY-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-291300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-291300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-291300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-291300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-291300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-291300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ178-291300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ179-291300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-291300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-291300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-291300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
321 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...9 FT E
OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...7 FT E OF ST
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

120 
FZAK52 PAFC 291227
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300100-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING A 990
MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 285 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT AND DEEPEN TO 986
MB 90 NM WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND LATE TUE MORNING...THEN DRIFT
NORTH AND DISSIPATE. A 950 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL APPROACH 500 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU TUE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 270 NM WEST OF ATTU
LATE TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ150-300100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-300100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-300100-
BRISTOL BAY-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-300100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-300100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-300100-
UNALASKA BAY-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-300100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-300100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-300100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-300100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-300100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-300100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ178-300100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ179-300100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-300100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-300100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-300100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE WIND 30
KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN ARE NOW LARGELY IN
PLACE...FEATURING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND INTO THE MAINLAND...AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA REGION. A STRENGTHENING 135 KT JET STREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS BLASTING STRAIGHT NORTHWARD UP THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS SEEING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
UNDER STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE AROUND COOK
INLET AND ALSO IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS BUILDING OVER EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA...WHICH HAS
SWITCHED THE OVERALL FLOW AT THE SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE
TO A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND COOK INLET. MEANWHILE OUT WEST...MOST
OF THE BERING SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AND STATIONARY
LOW SITTING NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THE STANDARD FOR MOST AREAS. WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NOW NEARLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...ALL EYES TURN TO THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NOT SURPRISINGLY THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
ON THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT IS NOW UPON US. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF GAP WINDS
AROUND BRISTOL BAY...KODIAK ISLAND...AND TURNAGAIN ARM BEGINNING
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVING UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TOMORROW.
THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SUPPORT SHORTWAVE ALOFT AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURE...AND WOULD REPRESENT THE STRONGEST "SQUEEZING" OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM
THE EXISTING FORECAST...AND THE PREFERENCE REMAINS FOR A WEAKER
FEATURE MORE IN THE LINE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING HIGHER CLOUDS WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
AROUND THE NORTHERN COOK INLET/KNIK ARM AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND TOMORROW...MAKING IT
HARDER FOR FOG OR STRATUS TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA. A WEATHER
FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE GULF WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND VERY GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY
MONDAY. EXCEPT FOR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
(WEST COOK INLET/WEST SUSITNA VALLEY)...STRONG SOUTHEAST CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOULD MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALES WITH LOCAL STORMS (BARREN ISLANDS)
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL MARINES TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. STRONG
GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ALONG TURNAGAIN
ARM/HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN ANCHORAGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...A VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA. A ROBUST 140
KT JET IS STREAMING UP FROM ABOUT 40N AND AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREA. THIS IS BRINGING A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH IS BUILDING AN A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
IN THE FORM OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
IS NOW SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS
CORE WILL MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH HIGHER PASSES AND KAMISHAK GAP.
THE SAVING GRACE IN THIS SCENARIO IS THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY ELEVATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WE DID
SLIGHTLY BACK OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS ANY GOOD DYNAMIC
MECHANISM TO MIX THOSE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE OTHER CONCERN IN THIS PATTERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHILE
WARM AIR IS SURGING UP...SOME PLACES ARE STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS
STRETCHING BETWEEN THE LOW ENTERING THE BERING STRAIT AND THE ONE
TAKING SHAPE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SO ESSENTIALLY AREAS
FROM DILLINGHAM TO BETHEL COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE THE WARM AIR COMES
UP WITH THAT NEXT LOW AND TURNS EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN. THIS
MAKES FOR A VERY TRICKY FORECAST AND PLACES IN THAT CORRIDOR COULD
ACTUALLY SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE BACK AND FORTH FROM
RAIN TO SNOW BACK TO RAIN AGAIN SEVERAL TIMES. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT...IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS WOULD ACCUMULATE AS ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD BE VERY WET. BUT CERTAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE KUSKOKWIM AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FOOT
OF SNOW OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...MOST OF
THE AREA IS CAUGHT UP BETWEEN THE DECAYING LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA AND
THE ACTIVE JET PUSHING SYSTEMS UP THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE LOW ON SATELLITE IS ABOUT TO DISRUPT THIS
PATTERN. THIS LOW IS TIGHTLY WOUND JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING HUNDREDS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THIS LOW WILL BE STEERED NORTH BY THE MERIDIONAL
JET LATER THIS EVENING AND SHOULD PUNCH RIGHT THROUGH THE ADAK AND
ATKA AREAS. TIGHTLY CLOSED LOWS LIKE THIS ARE HARD FOR THE MODELS
TO RESOLVE...SO IT MAY CONTAIN STRONGER WINDS THAN 55 KTS THEY ARE
DEPICTING. EITHER WAY...WHEN COMBINING THE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND
DECENT FORWARD MOMENTUM...EXPECT SOME STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
AREA INTO SUNDAY.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
START THE WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
MOIST AIR TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE BERING WHILE FURTHER WEST KEEPS
WEAK NORTHERNLY FLOW EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH GRAZING THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND PUSHES A WEATHER FRONT TO ITS EAST NORTH
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AS THE LOW PASSES
NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE DOWN-INLET PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REVERSE AND ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
MOVE OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM INTO ANCHORAGE...WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. ONSHORE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL
MID-WEEK WHICH WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR
RETURNING TO SOUTHERN ALASKA. WITH THIS PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM
WEST TO EAST WILL COME THE ANCHORAGE AREA'S NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER ALASKA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE AND WILL LIKELY BRING A
COOLING TREND...WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY THE MOST
IMPACTFUL THREAT...BUT WITH NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR ANY WARNING
LEVEL EVENT AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE
WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JANUARY OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE BERING AND GRAZING THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WARMER IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 132 136 137 138 139 141 150 155 160 173 174
               175 176 178 180
         STORMS 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...CC