Gale Warning 791, NWS Anchorage, AK

922 
FZAK62 PAFC 281217
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 AM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290200-
317 AM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 57N 170E WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175W WILL MOVE TO 60N 178E
MON MORNING AT 990 MB. A 982 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MON MORNING WILL
MOVE TO 58N 167W LATE MON NIGHT.


$$

PKZ411-290200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
317 AM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO S 15 TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-290200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
317 AM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ413-290200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
317 AM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ414-290200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
317 AM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

277 
FZAK62 PAFC 290020
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291500-
320 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 998 MB LOW NEAR 55N 160W TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 982 MB NEAR 54N 176W AND A 980 MB NEAR
58N 178E WILL COMBINE INTO ONE LOW AT 991 MB NEAR 60N 170E MON
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW TO DISSIPATE MON NIGHT AS A 950 MB LOW WORKS
TO 49N 163E TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW AT 986 MB TO MOVE TO 53N
161W MON AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 62N 170W AS A 984 MB LOW.

$$

PKZ411-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
320 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
320 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE TO NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

550 
FZAK62 PAFC 291213
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300145-
313 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 58N 179E WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
51N 158W AND DEEPEN TO 986 MB NEAR 61N 169W LATE TUE
MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE. A 950 MB KAMCHATKA LOW
WILL APPROACH 49N 162E TUE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 52N 166E LATE
TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
313 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
313 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
313 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
313 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
533 AM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS POSITIONED FROM 51N 147W IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN SIBERIAN REGION.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE THERE IS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE PACIFIC.
THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEATHER FRONT LOCATED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS NEAR NIKOLSKI THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW WEST OF SHEMYA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/AK PEN. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS ARE SHOWING THE GULF
WITH NORTHWESTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
MAJORITY OF THE GULF UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MARINE LAYER STRATUS
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN REPORTING LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE OCCLUDED LOW NEAR SHEMYA WELL AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE MODELS THEN
STRUGGLE WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
ALEUTAINS JUST SOUTH OF UNALASKA BY MONDAY MORNING. DURING THIS
SAME TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GRADIENT ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN ISSUANCE OF A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY REGION MAINLY THROUGH THE
GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE WEATHER FRONT TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS THIS WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING HIGHER CLOUDS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ARE
PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEATHER
FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST ON MON. EXCEPT FOR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE (WEST COOK INLET/WEST SUSITNA VALLEY)...STRONG SE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOULD MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALES WITH LOCAL STORMS (BARREN ISLANDS)
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL MARINES TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. STRONG
GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE KENAI PEN AND ANCHORAGE BOWL ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST REGION THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE STRATUS AND FOG TO THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WATCH MAINLY THROUGH GAPS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIED WITH THE WEATHER
FRONT THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MAJORITY OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR
A WINTRY MIX OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)..
THE OCCLUDED STORM FORCE LOW NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE THE WEATHER FRONT TRACKING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN
EXCEPT A WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA...WITH A
STOUT WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN FROM KODIAK TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
COAST...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS LARGE
NORTH-SOUTH TRENDING MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH STRONG EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS IMPACTING LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. A WARM CHINOOK WILL TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY AS THE BERING LOW TRACKS NORTH TOWARD
NUNIVAK ISLAND...WITH A WEAKER CHINOOK TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. RAIN WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS TUESDAY...BUT STRONG DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING WILL
KEEP MOST INLAND LOCATIONS LARGELY DRY. THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE BERING TROUGH
FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE ALCAN...AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE TROUGH THURSDAY. THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
DISCREPANCY...ARE ALL HINTING AT A BLOCKING HIGH FORMING OVER
ALASKA LATE WEEK...WITH A DRY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT CLEARING
THE REGION OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WOULD
EVENTUALLY YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 161.
MARINE...STORMS 130 131.
         GALES 132 136 137 138 139 141 150 155 160 165 170 174
               178 180 181 185 351 352 411 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA