Gale Warning 842, NWS Anchorage, AK

691 
FZAK51 PAFC 190028
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
326 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191230-
326 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A LARGE AND BROAD 971 MB LOW WILL REMAIN APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS FRONTS
TRACKING INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$

PKZ119-191230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
326 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST.. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-191230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191230-
RESURRECTION BAY
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-191230-
PORT VALDEZ
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-191230-
VALDEZ NARROWS
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-191230-
VALDEZ ARM
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191230-
PASSAGE CANAL
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE
EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-191230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-191230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
326 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-191230-
CHINIAK BAY
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-191230-
MARMOT BAY
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-191230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
326 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-191230-
KACHEMAK BAY
326 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THERE
IS ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THERE IS A LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH IT
IS A 200 KT JET AT AROUND 35 TO 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE POKING
INTO THE MID PACIFIC (AROUND 170 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE). THERE IS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THEY
QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS (24 TO 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST) AND ALSO WITH THE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AS IT BECOMES COMPLEX. SOME OF THE
MODELS STRUGGLES PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO THE 200 KT JET...WHERE
SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO LARGE
DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THERE IS A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THAT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW (CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF)
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...TURN
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN
GULF/ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH
GULF TONIGHT THEN STALL OFF THE GULF COAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE...BUT ESSENTIALLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
FORM ON THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS SURFACE LOW
CENTERS WILL BE SPINNING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE MAINLAND AS
THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWINGS UP TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AREAS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN AREAS OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
WITHOUT A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS IN THE INTERIOR. THE PATTERN HOLDS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING
IN INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BERING SEA ALSO CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN THREE SYSTEMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE BERING SEA SITS UNDER AN UNSTABLE
SHOWERY REGIME LEFT OVER BY THE LAST SYSTEM. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL TAPER TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONT FORMS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...
THE MAIN STORY IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK. THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF/ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESSIVELY PUSH EAST UNTIL ALL OF THE BERING
SEA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA ARE INVOLVED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WPC
FORECAST FAVORS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH
SOME 12Z GFS SPRINKLED IN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 127 130-132 138 139 150 175-178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&