Gale Warning 833, NWS Anchorage, AK

637 
FZAK52 PAFC 170003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171245-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 160 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK WEAKENS TO 985 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 400 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK THU AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTH OF AKAK THU AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW
FORMS THU AFTERNOON 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK.

$$

PKZ150-171245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171245-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171245-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... N 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF UPPER LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. ONE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA...ONE IS OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA/SOUTHERN GULF AND ONE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
FORECAST HOUR 60 (3PM AKST WEDNESDAY) THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY FOR A LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND NH
GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE LOW AND THE
NAM/ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE LOW BEING FURTHER
EAST...BUT ALL THE MODELS ARE IN "TIGHTER" AGREEMENT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FIRST IS SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT/UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER KODIAK AND THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
INLAND AREAS AS THE TROUGH IS SHARP ENOUGH TO CREATE DECENT LIFT
AN BRIEFLY TURN THE UPPER WINDS TO SOUTHWEST. YET ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BLOCKY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A DEEP LOW (SURFACE
PRESSURE PROBABLY IN THE 960'S) IN THE GULF ON DAY 3 (THURSDAY)
AND A COUPLE OF WEAKER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...AND BECOME
RATHER PROGRESSIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WPC MADE USE OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS EXCLUSIVELY...WITH A 70 PERCENT/30 PERCENT BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED NORTHWEST
OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS IS
REFLECTED WITH A GALE FORCE LOW WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND RESULTING
IN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL
BRING STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE
COASTLINE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WITH MIXED
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
AHKLUN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE EASTERN SIBERIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A GALE
FORCE LOW POSITIONED NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MAJORITY OF THE BERING
SEA WITH THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AIDING IN
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE MODIFIED RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EASTWARD.. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL START
TO RECEIVE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 155 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PLD
LONG TERM...BL