Gale Warning 828, NWS Anchorage, AK

280 
FZAK51 PAFC 150014
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151315-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD BRISTOL
BAY AND WEAKENS. A 983 MB LOW 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
MON MORNING MOVES 90 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 981 MB
MON NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA TUE.

$$

PKZ119-151315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151315-
PORT VALDEZ-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151315-
VALDEZ ARM-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.MON...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SW WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151315-
CHINIAK BAY-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151315-
MARMOT BAY-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
314 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE THE MAIN FEATURES FOR THE AREA. ONE
HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING AND IS TRACKING EAST TOWARDS
BRISTOL BAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE OTHER LOW IS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND IS HEADED TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND. IT IS BRINGING UP MORE
WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT IS ALREADY
BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE INITIALIZING POORLY WITH IDENTIFICATION OF FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHOWS UP IN POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS BY 30 HOURS OUT AND GETS WORSE IN THE MID TERM.
THE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLEX WITH VARIOUS LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE
BERING AND GULF AND THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH PLACEMENT
OF THESE LOWS. OVERALL MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SOLID RAIN SHIELD SITS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AT THE
LOW/FRONT APPROACH. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
TO COASTAL AREAS BUT SOME FLURRIES ARE SURVIVING THE DRY AIR
INDUCED BY THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE CHUGACH. THE 12Z
ANCHORAGE SOUNDING INDICATED A WARM LAYER SO FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL. DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS MAINLY DRY IN THE COOK INLET REGION WITH SEASONALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE INLET
TODAY WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET PUSHING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY WILL BRING
LIGHT ACCUMULATION SNOW TO MANY AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES TOWARD THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA. PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING BUT TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OR
POSSIBLY ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS "WARMER" AIR GETS
ADVECTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXTEND FROM DILLINGHAM NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TODAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
EXISTS WITH THE WARM LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE 12Z PAKN RAOB
SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW AREA ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH HINTS AT
PRECIPITATION STAYING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AS SOME OF THE WARMER
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...WE COULD SEE THAT WARM NOSE BECOME DEEPER
AND POSE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND INTO MONDAY...WITH GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND NEAR THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
SEEN AROUND THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY RESIDES JUST TO THE NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR/UNALASKA AND IS NEARLY AT PEAK INTENSITY. WEAK
RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS HAS CREATED A COMPACT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF UNALASKA.
ISALLOBARIC FLOW WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS UP TO 65 MPH
(ALREADY OBSERVED AT NIKOLSKI) IN THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE UPPED THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TO STORM FORCE
WINDS DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES. OTHERWISE...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER
OFF TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE JET STREAM MAINTAINS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WHICH KEEPS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS IT PUSHES MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE
WESTERN BERING TO THE EASTERN GULF. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS
PREFERRED AS IT PERFORMED BETTER ON THE LATEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING
EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MID WEEK CHANGES OVER TO MAINLY
SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH ADVECTS COLDER AIR FROM
THE BERING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRESENTS THE BIGGEST WEATHER
CHALLENGE AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS THE GULF...BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
AND DIFFERENCES THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 119 170
         GALES 120 125 129 130 139 150 155 165 171 172 173 174
               175 176 177 179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...TP