Gale Warning 678, NWS Anchorage, AK

236 
FZAK62 PAFC 141237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150230-
337 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 50N 167W WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO 51N 167W AND
WEAKEN TO 990 MB SAT EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. A 990 MB
NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 48N 179W AT 978 MB SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-150230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
337 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-150230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-150230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-150230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
337 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
BEAUFORT SEA...THE OTHER RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE FAIRBANKS
REGION WESTWARD THROUGH KUSKOKWIM DELTA INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
THOROUGH ATKA INTO THE LOWER CENTRAL BERING SEA. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THERE IS A COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAIN STRONG OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
BRISTOL BAY REGION. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT
GUSTY EASTERLY WIND WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH A 90 KNOT
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST JET STREAK OVER THE AKPEN. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED THROUGH
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AKPEN...NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS MARINE LAYER STRATUS...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW AT 48N 157W SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TRACKING NORTHWARD. AT 300 MB THERE IS A 125 KNOT NORTH TO SOUTH
MERIDIONAL JET STEAK DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED AT 35N 161W. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE CUT-OFF LOW FORMING
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE KENAI TONIGHT. THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE WEAK BERING LOW NEAR ATKA WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX SET OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
CONSOLIDATE JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS HAVE THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING WESTWARD PARALLEL TO
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA...THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH THE
GFS BEING THE OUTLIER. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WILL INCREASE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY GRADUALLY MOVES WESTWARD...LOOK FOR INCREASED
CHANCES FOR AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO BUILD IN THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE YUKON TERRITORY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE AREAS OF FOG WILL COVER AS
THE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...RUNNING CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED THROUGH
KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE AKPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO FAIRLY STRONG WITH SUPPORT ALOFT WITH A 100 KNOT JET STREAK
RUNNING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE STEADY RAIN TO KODIAK
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUD SLIDES DUE TO THE
CONTINUOUS RAIN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE
REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER TO MORE GARDEN-VARIETY
GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD FROM BRISTOL BAY ZONE INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING TOMORROW. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION...MEANING PRECIP WILL FALL ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AS RAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN DELTA
COAST WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN INITIALLY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS
SHIFT TO A BIT MORE EASTERLY WITH INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD-COVER DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WEAK
CIRCULATIONS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS....MIXED WITH SNOW FROM DUTCH
HARBOR WESTWARD...IN THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A SOMEWHAT STRONG LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND MAKE A NEAR-APPROACH TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BY RELATIVE
STANDARDS...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MODERATE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING REGIME REMAINS THOROUGHLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
BLOCKING REGIME CONSISTS OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW CENTERS RESIDING OVER THE BERING SEA AND A
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE THAT RESIDES OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
AND MAJORITY OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND. THE COMPLEX LOW OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE A SHOWERY REGIME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN
ONE-THIRD OF THE BERING SEA. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA INTO THE BERING SEA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL
REINFORCE AND REINVIGORATE THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO PUSH FURTHER
EASTWARD AND CLASH WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND.
DETAILS ARE A BIT CLOUDY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND
EAST A LITTLE BIT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO BE ON THE RISE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE VERY
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT SPELL OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOOKS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE STOUT PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE HOLDING
STEADY. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING
UP TO 3.5 TO 4.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. FOR PERSPECTIVE...THE AVERAGE
850 MB TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ABOUT NEGATIVE 6
DEGREES CELSIUS. IF THE GUIDANCE VERIFIES...THIS WOULD PUT THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. AS LONG AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE
ALASKA MAINLAND...THIS PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...130 131 132 136 137 318 150 155 160 170 172
                173 174 176 178 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
107 PM AKST THU NOV 13 2014

AKZ152-155-142100-
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE...BETHEL...
HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
107 PM AKST THU NOV 13 2014

...RECENT RAINS AND WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE CAUSED SOME ICE JAMS
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE KUSKOKWIM BASIN OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT
HAVE MELTED MUCH OF THE LOW LYING SNOWPACK.  ICE WAS REPORTED TO BE
MOVING AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ALONG A 100 MILE STRETCH OF THE KUSKOKWIM
RIVER... INCLUDING A REPORT OF ICE MOVING STEADILY THURSDAY AT ANIAK
BEFORE STOPPING. ICE THICKNESS HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE FROM 6 TO 10
INCHES. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE CHANCE OF A PROLONGED ICE JAM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MUCH
OF THE SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
REDUCE INFLOWS TO THE RIVER.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
TRAVEL ON THE RIVER IN PLACES WHERE BREAKUP HAS OCCURRED WILL BE VERY
DANGEROUS UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER HAS REFORMED. WATER LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO RISE AS THE ICE RUNS PASS VILLAGES. WATER LEVELS WERE
LOW BEFORE THE EVENT...SO EVEN WITH ICE JAMS FORMING...THE
WEAKNESS OF THE ICE WILL MAKE RISES TO FLOOD LEVELS UNLIKELY.