Gale Warning 676, NWS Anchorage, AK

111 
FZAK62 PAFC 121233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130230-
333 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 57N 168W DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON. A 985 MB
LOW NEAR 58N 179E MOVES TO 54N 176W AT 1001 MB THU MORNING AND 
DISSIPATES THU AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR 51N 161W
AT 973 MB THU AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING NEAR 52N 165W AT 977 MB FRI
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-130230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
333 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-130230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-130230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF 176W.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-130230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
333 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

.TODAY...E WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

135 
FZAK62 PAFC 130018
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131415-
318 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 55N 179W WEAKENS TO 1002 MB EARLY THU MORNING
NEAR 52N 176W AND THEN DISSIPATES. A COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW
CONSOLIDATES THU AFTERNOON NEAR 52N 164W AT 978 MB. THIS LOW THEN
WEAKENS TO 981 MB THU AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO 49N 166W.

$$

PKZ411-131415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-131415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-131415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-131415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
452 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA REGION EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO THE
NORTHSLOPE REGION. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THERE IS A 130 KT
SOUTH TO NORTH MERIDIONAL JET STREAK LOCATED THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARDS THE BROOKS
RANGE. THE BERING SEA STILL HAS THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED LOW
LOCATED WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONED THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND...COOK INLET AND INTO
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE RADAR IS DEPICTING SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE LOWER 40S
ALONG THE COAST SPREADING INLAND. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES
TO HAVE ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE
REPORTING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ALL MODELS HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS WESTWARD INTO THE ALASKA
RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT STRENGTH OF WINDS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVE TILTED OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING BRINGING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS
EXTENDING TOWARDS KAMISHAK BAY. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL CREATE GUSTY STRONG WINDS FOR THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRYING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREAS. RAINFALL WILL THEN BECOME MORE
STRATIFORM BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE
FOR DOWNSLOPING TO OCCUR ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE...LEADING TO LOCATIONS LIKE ILIAMNA AND KING SALMON TO SEE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE REST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA.

WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL AID IN ALIGNING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ALLOW
STRONG WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE PASSES IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.
THUS...A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW AS WINDS APPROACHING 80 MPH COULD BE SEEN
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND NORTH OF KING SALMON. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LARGE COMPLEX LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING THOROUGHLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN SEA AS COLDER AIR FROM RUSSIA/KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR FOG FORMING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS WITH THE STABLE AIRMASS. THE GULF WILL PREDOMINANTLY
HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH AREAS OF FOG
ACCOMPANIED BY MARINE LAYER STRATUS.

THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING STRAIT OVER THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL
BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM MOVING
INLAND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRACKING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING A BROAD
COMPLEX LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 161.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 132 136 137 138 139 150.
         STORMS 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...PD