Gale Warning 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

331 
FZAK52 PAFC 012301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021145-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI. A LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THU AND PERSIST THOUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ150-021145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-021145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-021145-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-021145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-021145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-021145-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-021145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-021145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-021145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-021145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-021145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-021145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-021145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-021145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-021145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-021145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-021145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 15 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
151 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WERE EVIDENT ALONG THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS ASSOCIATED
WITH SUBSIDENCE WAS EVIDENT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND WAS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY THE GULF...PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND ARE ON
THE DECLINE. THE PINCH IN PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN
BERING RIDGE AND THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUED BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AK PEN...EAST ALEUTIANS/EASTERN BERING
SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SIMILAR PHASING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
MAINLAND AND THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE AS COLD AIR SHOULD DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE FORWARD
SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
SHARPEN THE MAINLAND TROUGH. THIS EFFECTIVELY PINCHES OFF THE
BERING SEA RIDGE ON THU AND CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT
FIELDS WHICH ALLOWS THE NORTH PACIFIC CUT-OFF LOW TO PROGRESS
NORTH.

SURFACE FEATURES HOWEVER ARE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND POSITION. OVERALL...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TRIPLE POINT FEATURE SPAWNING OFF THE THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ALL
MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD LEFT EXIT JET POSITION OVER THE DEVELOPING
TRIPLE POINT WHICH HEADS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. THE 00Z NAM IS THE FASTEST IN MOVING THIS FEATURE NORTH
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRI.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH BLEND OF THE GEM
GLOBAL/GFS IN THE GULF KEEPING GALES WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW.
OUT WEST...MODELS HAVE SIMILAR HANDING OF FEATURES...SO IN GENERAL
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TRIPLE
POINT WILL START PUSHING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF ON THU. GALES
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH WITH THE TRIPLE POINT ON THU NIGHT
AND LOCAL GAP FLOWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE AND TEMP GRADIENTS. MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND GULF COAST THU NIGHT
THEN SPREAD WEST ON FRI.  THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE
PUSH AND CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION INLAND ON FRI IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH CURRENT MODELS DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COAST WILL BE MAINLY RAIN AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN LIKELY WILL HAVE SNOW OR A MIX.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHAT LITTLE STRATUS MOVED IN OVER THE DELTA
THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
STRENGTHEN. EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO LAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RIDGING OVER THE MAINLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT WINDS CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AND EVEN STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE AK PEN THROUGH THU. WILL ALSO
SEE SOME LOCALLY BRISK WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BARELY
BRUSH THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID
WEEK...CONTINUING THE SPLIT-FLOW BLOCKING PATTERN AND PROVIDING
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SAT OCT 4 - TUE OCT 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BERING NORTHWARD INTO SIBERIA...AND A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE STATE OF ALASKA. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED VORTEX ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE A
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLY EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN SNOW...WILL BE ACROSS THE
COPPER BASIN. ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES.
RIGHT NOW...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER VORTEX SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST AND COLDER
AIR AND CLEARER SKIES FORM ACROSS THE STATE.

- AHSENMACHER

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...150 155 172 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

RMC/AHSENMACHER SEP 14