Gale Warning 590, NWS Anchorage, AK

686 
FZAK62 PAFC 010313 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
713 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011615-
713 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR 57N 167W WILL MOVE TO 57N 159W AND WEAKEN TO
986 MB SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA SAT THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ411-011615-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
713 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011615-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
713 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011615-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
713 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011615-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
713 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

090 
FZAK62 PAFC 011159
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 AM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020200-
359 AM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR 57N 163W WILL MOVE TO 57N 159W AT 983 MB SUN
MORNING AND THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING ON SUN.

$$

PKZ411-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
359 AM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
359 AM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
359 AM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
359 AM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS A STORM FORCE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA...BRINGING RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
ARCING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW. MEANWHILE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HELPING TO SUPPORT MODEST GAP
WINDS THROUGH FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS ALSO BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO SHOW SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW IN THE BERING AFTER THE SIGNIFICANT POSITIONAL
SPREAD OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE EC IS STILL ON THE WESTERNMOST
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT HAS SHOWN A LARGE EASTWARD JUMP IN THE
12Z RUN TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GEM/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ALSO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE
GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY USED THE GEM
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST AS IT HAS DISPLAYED THE MOST CONSISTENCY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
GAP FLOWS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO
THE IMPACTS OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD KODIAK ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND.
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN WHICH
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING
OR BLOWING SNOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE COAST
TONIGHT...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO AREAS ALONG THE
COAST. AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS A RESULT OF
DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE CHUGACH RANGE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE CROSS BARRIER FLOW WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE
IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONE AREA THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
WILL BE PORTAGE VALLEY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HELPS
TO KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND ALSO SUPPORTS LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW WILL REACH THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
BAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING INLAND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED ALONG THE COAST AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE EASTERN BERING...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TAKING HOLD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY.
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE ENTIRE CHAIN AND OVER MOST
OF THE BERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME AS
NORTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATER TODAY FOR THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL START TO MIX IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MON THROUGH THU)...
THE MID-LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN
AS WE REMAIN IN THE FALL TRANSITION SEASON. THE DETAILS ARE QUITE
MESSY FROM START TO FINISH...THOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS
ALMOST A "RINSE AND REPEAT" PATTERN COMPARED WITH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.

REMNANT LOW PRESSURE NEAR BRISTOL BAY SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF AK EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
BROADEN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE OUT WEST...A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING TO
START THE WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD...BUT COULD ALSO MAKE FOR SOME TIGHTER GRADIENTS LEADING TO
GUSTIER WINDS. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY
MID-WEEK. AS OF NOW...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE FILLING AND ELONGATING BY THAT TIME AND THUS...HAVE
LIMITED WINDS TO GALE-FORCE.

THE RINSE AND REPEAT PORTION OCCURS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG-
TERM. SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BERING BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE DETAILS REMAIN VERY
HAZY...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMING VERY NEAR WHERE THE ONE FOR TOMORROW IS PROGGED TO FORM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172 174 176 413 414
		 GALE WARNING 119 132 150 155 160 165 173 175 177 178 179
					  180 181 185 352 411 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

CB/MO OCT 14