Storm Warning 104, NWS Anchorage, AK

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 312345
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011330-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR 57N 167W WILL MOVE TO 57N 159W AND WEAKEN TO
986 MB SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA SAT THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ411-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOPED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN WESTERLY MOVING UPPER WAVE OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. THE CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF
A WESTERLY MOVING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE YUKON IS MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL HAS SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE. THERE ALSO WERE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN INLET. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST GULF THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING PRESSURES OVER THE GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT PRODUCED STRONG
WESTERLY/NORTH GAP FLOWS THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALEUTIANS RANGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF...BARREN ISLANDS...EASTERN KENAI/WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

OUT WEST...STRATUS BLANKETED THE DELTA AS WELL AS EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY/KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
THE SW MAINLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING STORM CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SPREAD
NORTH/EAST TO OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN AK PEN.
RAIN WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS REPORTED NEAR ADAK WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS IN SHEMYA. RAIN REACHED BOTH DUTCH HARBOR
OR SAINT PAUL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEVELOPING STORM CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER
ONCE IT CROSSES INTO THE BERING SEA. THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY IS
THE FURTHER WEST...THOUGH THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE FORECAST
CENTER EAST. THE NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE MOVING THE CENTER TOO
QUICKLY EAST...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE INHERITED GRID
SOLUTION OF A 00Z ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL BLEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ELONGATES EAST TOWARD THE GULF...BROAD WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. IT IS LIKELY THEN THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
STRETCH EASTWARD AS A TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRI. MODELS IN GENERAL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE. TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE GULF ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

 &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT WITH A WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE YUKON.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH SAT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN
GULF ON FRI MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST/KENAI
PEN SAT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY START AS SNOW FRI MORNING NEAR
KODIAK THEN SHOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT TO RAIN. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS BEFORE BECOMING RAIN. STRONG CROSS
BARRIER FLOW ACROSS THE CHUGACH WILL MITIGATE SNOW/RAIN CHANCES TO
THE LEE SIDE INITIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT FRI. CROSS
BARRIER FLOW WEAKENS SAT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER OF
RAIN AND SNOW INLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND FRI WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
PRECIPITATION WISE. WARM AIR SLOWLY CREEPS NORTH TO THE NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY COAST ON FRI EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS
LINE. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY TO THE NORTH WITH CHANCES OF POCKETS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY START CLEARING ON SAT
WITH THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CROSS THE
CHAIN WEST OF ADAK THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TO BRISTOL BAY LATE FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE TO
THE WESTERN AK PEN/PRIBILOF'S TONIGHT THEN TO BRISTOL BAY ON FRI.
EASTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
AND NORTH OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WESTERLY STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER.
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MON THROUGH THU)...THE MID-LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WE REMAIN IN THE FALL
TRANSITION SEASON. THE DETAILS ARE QUITE MESSY FROM START TO
FINISH...THOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS ALMOST A "RINSE AND
REPEAT" PATTERN COMPARED WITH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

REMNANT LOW PRESSURE NEAR BRISTOL SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
AK EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BROADEN
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE OUT WEST...A SHARP RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING TO START THE
WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT
COULD ALSO MAKE FOR SOME TIGHTER GRADIENTS LEADING TO GUSTIER
WINDS. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY MID-WEEK.
AS OF NOW...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
FILLING AND ELONGATING BY THAT TIME AND THUS...HAVE LIMITED WINDS
TO GALE- FORCE.

THE RINSE AND REPEAT PORTION OCCURS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG-
TERM. SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BERING BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE DETAILS REMAIN VERY
HAZY...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMING VERY NEAR WHERE THE ONE FOR TOMORROW IS PROGGED TO FORM.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155 170 172 173 174 175 176 179
	GALE WARNING 119 130 131 132 150 160 165 171 177 178 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

RMC/MO OCT 14