Gale Warning 582, NWS Anchorage, AK

848 
FZAK62 PAFC 261133
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270215-
333 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB LOW NEAR 60N 179E WILL MOVE TO 64N 175W AND STRENGTHEN
TO 966 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 994 MB
NEAR 61N 170W LATE MON NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 56N
157W LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
333 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
333 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

316 
FZAK62 PAFC 262338
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271430-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 968 MB LOW NEAR 63N 176W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 982 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 59N
167W AND WEAKEN TO 995 MB TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE
AFTERNOON. A 997 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 55N 160W MON AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TO 56N 154W AT 986 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-271430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-271430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-271430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-271430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

253 
FZAK62 PAFC 271143
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280200-
343 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 65N 175W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 980 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO
60N 171W AND WEAKEN TO 995 MB TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE
AFTERNOON. A 994 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 56N 161W THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TO 55N 152W AT 988 MB LATE TUE NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-280200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
343 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
343 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

924 
FZAK62 PAFC 271832 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1032 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED 411 412 413

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280900-
1032 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 65N 175W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 980 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO
60N 171W AND WEAKEN TO 995 MB TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE
AFTERNOON. A 994 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 56N 161W THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TO 55N 152W AT 988 MB LATE TUE NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-280900-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
1032 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280900-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
1032 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280900-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
1032 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280900-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
1032 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

545 
FZAK62 PAFC 272336
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281400-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994MB LOW NEAR 55N 162W MOVES TO 56N 154W TUESDAY. A 986 MB LOW
AT 64N 175W WILL WEAKEN TO 997 MB AS IT MOVES TO 59N 167W TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT. SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN S OF 56N.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN S OF 56N.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN S OF 56N.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR EASTERN RUSSIA TO
JUST OFF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA IS CREATING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE ENTIRE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. THERE ARE
SOME SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WHICH ARE BRINGING SOME
ARES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AS WELL. THE FIRST IS
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ANOTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE POLAR JET IS RUNNING OFF FAR NORTHERN JAPAN TO KAMCHATKA AND
THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET IS IMPORTANT AS IT IS WHAT WILL
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF ATTU AND MOVE
IT NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THERE IS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEAKENING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS THE LOW FROM WHICH THE FRONT OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA EMANATES. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PERSISTS NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND AS IT HAS SINCE EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY AND THEN FINALLY DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO THE STRONG
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THEY ARE ALL SHOWING
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOW TRACK THAN WHAT ANY OF THEM SHOWED
YESTERDAY. INSTEAD OF MOVING THE LOW INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THE
MODELS ARE ALL STOPPING ITS NORTHERN PROGRESS NEAR ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN KEEPING IT STATIONARY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING IT AS IT HEADS
TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS RESOLVING
THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING ITS WEAKENING PHASE AS IT HEADS
SOUTHEAST BUT THEY ARE ALL TAKING THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF IT IN
THAT DIRECTION AND THAT IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE COPPER RIVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BUT IT SHOULD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL END THE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN FALLING SINCE
YESTERDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT LINGER
OVER THE BASIN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BUT THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND COVER LESS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTY GAP
WINDS NEAR WHITTIER AND SEWARD DUE TO THIS LOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME
LARGE AREAS OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS PACKED UP ALONG THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR THE INLET LATE TONIGHT IF ENOUGH DRY AIR DOES
NOT MAKE IT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AS WELL.
THERE IS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT WITH THIS FRONT WITH SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF IT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE STRONG LOW MOVING
INTO THE BERING SEA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW NORTH OF ATTU WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY
AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARD ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING A
LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND SOME STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
BERING SEA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE RAIN AS IT BEGINS AND THEN TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

WHILE THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF A
DEVELOPING LOW FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE GENERAL LONG TERM PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED. A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE AKPENN ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE AND FORM A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RIDGING TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MAINLAND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS PERIOD
OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MAINLAND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

OUT WEST...THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF AN
ALEUTIAN LOW THAT WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

DUE TO THE FAIRLY LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF AND NORTH PACIFIC FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM
FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HEAVILY USED WPC GUIDANCE. THIS KEEPS THE LOW
TRACK MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AOR...TREATING THE FURTHER NORTH
TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS
AS AN OUTLIER. THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW TRACK...LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN QUIET WEATHER MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY MID WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 178 181. STORM 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

OCT 14