Gale Warning 562, NWS Anchorage, AK

980 
FZAK62 PAFC 082345
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091400-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 945 MB LOW NEAR 48N 171W MOVES 56N 149W AT 970 MB FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ411-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 28 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

668 
FZAK62 PAFC 091153
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100130-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 MB LOW NEAR 49N 166W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 153W AT 966 MB
FRI MORNING AND THEN INTO THE GULF FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ411-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

367 
FZAK62 PAFC 092343
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101415-
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 MB LOW NEAR 50N 163W WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRI
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ411-101415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-101415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-101415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-101415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

814 
FZAK62 PAFC 101143
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110215-
343 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 53N 153W WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-110215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
343 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-110215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-110215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-110215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
343 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A LOW THAT IS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH
ANOTHER LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF ATTU. IN BETWEEN THERE IS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TO ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MOST OF
THE MAINLAND PART OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A BIT
MORE SIMPLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A
DISSIPATING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE BIG WEATHER
MAKER IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WHERE THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TYPHOON PHANFONE ARE USURPING THE ENERGY FROM THE LOW THAT HAS NEE
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LOW IS STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA BUT IT WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE FORMER
TYPHOON REMNANTS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING A FINE JOB WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTER WHICH PRETTY
MUCH CONSISTS OF HANDLING THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THE ONLY REAL QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE SPEED AT
WHICH THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 300 MILES FARTHER NORTHEAST
THAN THE GFS MODEL. AFTER THIS THE LOW WILL BECOME COMPLEX AND
THE MODELS ENTER INTO SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW
UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS THE BIG
EXCEPTION WHERE STRATUS HAS SETTLED INTO THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
BASIN AND ARE NOT BURNING OFF. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY BUT IT
LOOKS MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE COPPER RIVER AT THIS TIME. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND BRING RAIN TO KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED FROM THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER
THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE OVERALL BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA FROM THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE STRONG FRONT OVER THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BERING
SEA WILL GET ABSORBED BY THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS
IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. DUE TO THE WAY THESE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING AND INTERACTING
THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SAT-TUE)...THE "LEFTOVER" TROUGH IN THE GULF
OF AK TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE ALREADY IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS NORTHERN TIER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN THE EAST
FLANK OF THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY EARLY SAT.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS
IT MOVES S OF 60N. THE GFS/GEM GLOBAL DRIVE IT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF. THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND HOLDS IT OVER
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE TRACKING IT NE RIGHT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THIS IS THAT THE EC WOULD BRING A ROBUST
ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING ON THE GFS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND -2C OVER ANCHORAGE WHILE THE EC PAINTS NEARLY
-10C. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH IN THE GULF...THE EC
SOLUTION WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION WERE TO PAN OUT...LOWER
ELEVATIONS WOULD LIKELY JUST SEE SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION HIGHER UP.
MEANWHILE OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...THINGS SHOULD BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE WEEK AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 138 150-165 171 174-185.
         STORM 170 172 173.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

OCT 14