Gale Warning 485, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 15, 2014, 2:58 PM AKDT (22:58 UTC)

Expired

Aug 16, 2014, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

305 
FZAK51 PAFC 152258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161200-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND
REACHES THE GULF COAST SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A 1002 MB
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE ABOUT 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161200-
PORT VALDEZ-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161200-
VALDEZ ARM-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161200-
CHINIAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161200-
MARMOT BAY-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 15, 1:42 PM AKDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WONT END COMPLETELY ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND, WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY. NEXT LOW CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD
MORE RAIN IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THE SURFACE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE STACKED CENTRAL ALEUTIAN UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWEST AK THROUGH SUN. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TODAY...ENTER
THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT...AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST SAT
MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF
AND SLOWS THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND PREVENTS IT
FROM MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATER ON SUN.

LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE MAINLAND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE BERING SUN INTO MON. THE GFS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HAS
PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND GREATER DETAIL THAN THE
EC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

RAIN AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME BRIEF BREAKS THIS
EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN BEFORE TAPERING OFF MON. STRONG WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN AND GALES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ACCOMPANY
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
RETURN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER ON SAT...THE SLOW DECAY OF THE LOW OVER SW AK WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON SUN AND
BEGINS TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE INTO MON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TODAY. BY SAT MORNING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REDUCED TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A JET STREAM
THAT IS LARGELY SOUTH OF THE AOR WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
WEATHER FEATURES OVERALL. FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR A TIME WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
SUNNY BREAKS...BUT ALSO TOUGH TO PINPOINT PERIODS OF RAIN AS
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW. OUT
WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TO DIG A BIT
SOUTHWARDS AND CUT OFF MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW THE
INITIALLY FLAT JET STREAM TO NOSE NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TOWARDS THE GULF OR SW MAINLAND.
TO WHAT DEGREE IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ESPECIALLY BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROAD SW
FETCH OF MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF/PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED
SUBSTANTIALLY BY IT'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT THIS JUNCTURE. THAT
SAID...IT IS A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION GIVEN WE ARE NOW MOVING INTO
THE RAINIER SEASON. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD... BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CLOSE TO
A HEAVY ENSEMBLE BLEND PER WPC GUIDANCE. THIS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND MOSTLY DRY SAVE FOR PASSING SHOWERS TUE AND WED WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WITH TEMPERED WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE BERING SEA AND CHAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER- LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
OUT WEST IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY...121
MARINE...GALE...119 120 125 129 130 131 132 139 150 160 351 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

PERCY/JAM

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2014Every gale warning in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.