Gale Warning 450, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 9, 2014, 2:49 PM AKDT (22:49 UTC)

Expired

Jul 10, 2014, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

492 
FZAK51 PAFC 092249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101145-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 30 NM NORTH OF
SITKINAK AT 1001 MB BY NOON THU. ON THU AFTERNOON A 995 MB LOW 280
NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL ABSORB THE FIRST LOW...THEN MOVE TO
KODIAK CITY LATE THU NIGHT AT 989 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY FRI AFTERNOON AT 994 MB.

$$

PKZ119-101145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101145-
PORT VALDEZ-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101145-
VALDEZ ARM-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 30 KT
BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 20 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101145-
CHINIAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101145-
MARMOT BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jul 9, 1:16 PM AKDT, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
116 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THERE ARE SEVERAL SURFACE AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THIS UPPER
LOW. THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT OF THESE SURFACE LOWS ARE CURRENTLY
SPINNING UP...ONE JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK AND THE OTHER ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BOTH OF THESE CONTAIN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND LOW. THERE IS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...AND ANOTHER TO THE
WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THERE IS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER
ONE JUST NUDGING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM TO
A DEGREE THAT LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. AT ISSUE
IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE TWO MAIN LOWS THAT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
HAS A STRONGER DIVISION BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...WITH A DEFINITE
"TWO-SURGE" EVENT BEFORE THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
MERGE THE SYSTEMS MUCH FASTER...STILL A TWO-SURGE EVENT...BUT MUCH
LESS DEFINED BETWEEN THE EVENTS. AFTERNOON FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS
THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL THAN IS
OPTIMAL FOR A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN KODIAK TONIGHT AND STALL. THE WARM FRONT FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND WILL
STALL AND BE ABSORBED BY THE NEXT FRONT (OCCLUSION) ON THURSDAY.
THIS OCCLUSION WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND WINDS TO
THE GULF COAST AND AREAS NEARBY. LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED INLAND DUE
TO DOWN-SLOPE EFFECTS...BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED...A "HIGH POP/LOW QPF" SCENARIO. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM.

THIS FIRST LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS THE NEXT LOW (CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS) MOVES INTO THE GULF AND
INTENSIFIES LATER THURSDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING EVEN MORE
RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE WAS TAPPED FROM THE SUBTROPICS.
EXPECT DECENT RIVER RISES FOR AREAS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AGAIN THE
INLAND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...ANOTHER HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SITUATION.

THE WEATHER WILL SETTLE DOWN BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW BY SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE WEAK AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SHOWERY...AND WINDS WILL SLACK OFF.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME "SURGES" IN MOISTURE AS SOME SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SURGE WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA..."WRAP AROUND" MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVING INTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING TO
SHOWERS. AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF "WRAP AROUND" RAIN WILL PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN
SLACK OFF TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE AROUND THE MAIN LOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
EASTWARD. OTHERWISE THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SAT JULY 12 - TUE JULY 15)...

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS ALASKA ON
SATURDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE COAST...WITH
MORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INLAND. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A
MARINE INFLUENCED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...NO DRAMATIC WARM...COOL...DRY...OR WET
PERIODS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 125 129 130 131 138 139.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG/AHSENMACHER JUL 14

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2014Every gale warning in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.