Gale Warning 449, NWS Anchorage, AK

492 
FZAK51 PAFC 092249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101145-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 30 NM NORTH OF
SITKINAK AT 1001 MB BY NOON THU. ON THU AFTERNOON A 995 MB LOW 280
NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL ABSORB THE FIRST LOW...THEN MOVE TO
KODIAK CITY LATE THU NIGHT AT 989 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY FRI AFTERNOON AT 994 MB.

$$

PKZ119-101145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101145-
PORT VALDEZ-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101145-
VALDEZ ARM-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 30 KT
BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 20 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101145-
CHINIAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101145-
MARMOT BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
159 PM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ALASKA WILL STEER THE WEATHER
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL...TWO DISTINCT
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE SHAPING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BELOW. THE
EASTERNMOST SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE THE MORE
DOMINANT LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. A THIRD LOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE BERING SEA
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A HEALTHY VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION OVER
BRISTOL BAY WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND DEVELOPED FROM THE UPPER LOW
PINWHEELING EASTWARD WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SHEARED WAVE
OF VORTICITY.

FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ALONG THE MATANUSKA RIVER AS A RESULT
OF RECENT RAINFALL...AND WARMER WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL CHOICES THIS DAY INCLUDE THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE THE WESTERN SOLUTION IS HANDLED BETTER BY A
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS. HOWEVER..AS TIME MARCHES ON TOWARD THE
NEXT ALASKA WEATHER EVENT... MOST MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A
COLLECTIVE SOLUTION OF SETTING JET LEVEL PHASING TO A STUNNING
RAINY PATTERN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE NORTH PACIFIC VORT MAX WILL BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE BERING SEA
TROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA/ALASKA
PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A QUICK GLANCE AT MOISTURE FIELDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA TELLS THE
STORY OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN REARING ITS
SOGGY HEAD IN MIDSEASON. WITH HEALTHY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE BERING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT BACKS
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH TIME...THERE SHOULD BE NO IMPEDIMENT
TO CONNECTING LIFT AND STORM ENERGY WITH AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WAVE OF THE RAINFEST SHOULD MOVE ONTO
KODIAK ISLAND AFTER 0Z THURSDAY (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON).

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA...WINDS WILL
COME UP IN THE NORTHERN GULF...BARRENS AND SHELIKOF BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. SOLID GALES WILL BE LIKELY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO
HOMER...AND KODIAK ISLAND...CONTINUING INTO THE LATE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
UNDERNEATH THE PARENT UPPER LOW IN THE BERING...SEVERAL SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND TRACK WESTWARD. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE WEEK.

WINDS WILL COME UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. A MORE
SUSTAINED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RUN DOWN THE YK COAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE BRINGING WINDS UP FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHAIN. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT NOTHING ON THE ORDER OF WHAT IS TO BE
EXPERIENCED FARTHER EAST. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK TOWARD FLATTENING THE SURFACE PATTERN INTO
A ZONE FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CHAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LARGE SPRAWLING TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
FRIDAY...WITH A WELL DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DIRECTED AT
SOUTHCENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IMPACTING THE COAST...WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AS DEEP
MOISTURE POURS OVER THE LOWER COASTAL RANGES. MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYSLOT ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

DJS / BL / AHSENMACHER JUL 14