Gale Warning 370, NWS Anchorage, AK

965 
FZAK52 PAFC 081200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090045-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES TODAY. A 993 MB LOW WILL FORM ALONG
THIS FRONT 55 NM S OF COLD BAY TODAY AND MOVE TO 140 NM SE OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 1004 MB BY WED AFTERNOON. A 966 MB LOW 540 NM SW
OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 280 NM S OF SHEMYA AT 975 MB WED MORNING
THEN WEAKEN TO 984 MB 100 NM W OF ADAK BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-090045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-090045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-090045-
BRISTOL BAY-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-090045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT
MOLLER.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-090045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W 20 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-090045-
UNALASKA BAY-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-090045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-090045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-090045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-090045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-090045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-090045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-090045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-090045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-090045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-090045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-090045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 8 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
119 PM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOOK AT THE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS STEERING A 981 MB LOW INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR YAKUTAT WITH STEADY SNOW SPREADING
INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A SLOW-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND CONTINUES TO GRIND
SLOWLY EAST...WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY HELPING TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AROUND MUCH OF THE COOK INLET REGION THIS MORNING.
MODERATE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS HELPED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN MINIMAL. THE MUCH-
ANTICIPATED REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE EASTERN BERING. OUT
WEST...A STALLED FRONT IS DISSIPATING IN PLACE OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SECOND FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH RAIN AND GALE-FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN THE SAME GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN A SLIGHTLY
SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE KNOWN TO DOWNPLAY SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA IN PATTERNS LIKE THIS...THUS WITH ALL THE
KEY INGREDIENTS FOR SNOW (MID-LEVEL TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A WEAK LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND) WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE GENERALLY MODEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PARENT UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA WILL DROP DOWN THE FRONT
OF A BERING SEA RIDGE AND HEAD TOWARD THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE
GFS IS ALONE IN KEEPING THIS FEATURE UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
OVERALL THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE TOTALITY
OF THE MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
REMAINS THE PREFERRED MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THERE IS A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF MANY FEATURES HAPPENING ACROSS THE
AREA CURRENTLY. LOWER PRESSURES AT THE SURFACE HAVE SPREAD FROM
THE LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLE TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND GAP
WINDS FROM WHITTIER TO THOMPSON PASS HAVE RESPONDED WITH
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...GENTLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF COOK INLET. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
REMAINS HOW EXACTLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESPOND TO THE
REINFORCING SHOT FROM UPSTREAM...AND HOW QUICKLY DYNAMIC LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TO ENHANCE THE LIFT FROM THE
IMMINENT AIRMASS REPLACEMENT. THE TREND TODAY HAS BEEN TOWARD A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS DYNAMIC LIFT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
LIGHTER BUT MORE PROLONGED SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE POPULATION
CENTERS AROUND UPPER COOK INLET. WILL GENERALLY STICK WITH CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT ADD IN SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ARRIVES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY TO
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS EVENING AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AS THE COLD SURGE OF AIR RETREATS NORTHEAST INTO
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
TWO BASIC WEATHER FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST IS THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES ALL THE
WAY TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STRETCH OUT SO MUCH THAT EVENTUALLY A NEW LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE
INTERSECTION WITH A ZONAL JET SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL THEN RACE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW WILL AMBLE
INTO THE WESTERN BERING BY MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AND MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
MAINLAND BY MIDWEEK AND BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNNIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE BERING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS
WILL GENERALLY STEER MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 131 173 174 175 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

AMD APR 14