Gale Warning 242, NWS Anchorage, AK

881 
FZAK61 PAFC 132302
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141200-
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 971 MB LOW AT 56N 150W WILL MOVE TO 61N 151W FRI AFTERNOON AT 980
MB THEN MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. A 1006 MB LOW AT 57N 
152W SAT MORNING WILL MOVE TO 59N 150W SAT AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-141200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN BECOMING RAIN E AND SNOW
W. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 148W.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING N
AND E. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 148W. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 148W IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...N TO W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-141200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING S TO W WIND 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF 148W. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 148W. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NE 10 TO 20 KT E OF 148W.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING W OF 149W. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED MAR 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN STEERING UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA. THERE IS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WITH THIS LOW IS ALONG 150 WEST LONGITUDE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...THEN CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO KODIAK
ISLAND...THEN "BENDS BACK" OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. VERY COLD AIR
IS SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS BENT BACK OCCLUSION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY CLOSE...AND THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. EVEN THE
NAM LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD...IF MAYBE A BIT FAST WITH THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS FRONT...STARTING AS SNOW AND
THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS AS WARM AIR PUSHES IN.
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH DOWN-SLOPE DRYING.
WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND NEARBY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT TO MINIMAL WARNING LEVELS (GUSTS TO 75 MPH). THE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THIS LOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR. POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT ON KODIAK AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THE KACHEMAK BAY AREA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS LOW.
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THIS COLD AIR WILL REACH ANCHORAGE
WITH SNOW A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BENT-BACK
OCCLUSION (AND THEN ITS REMNANTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON). WARM AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT...BUT THEN COLD AIR WILL SURGE BACK EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN FAVORABLE DYNAMICS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 141 150
                        155 160 165 170 172 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 160 165 170 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14