Blizzard Watch 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

615 
WWAK41 PAFC 131316
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
516 AM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...STRONG STORM TO BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THREAT TO KODIAK
ISLAND AND KACHEMAK BAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
INTENSIFY AND TRACK JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING UP COOK INLET ON FRIDAY. COLD WINDS WRAPPING IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.

AKZ171-140230-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0011.140314T0300Z-140314T1800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.140314T0200Z-140314T1400Z/
KODIAK ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KODIAK CITY
516 AM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...KODIAK ISLAND.

* SNOW...UP TO 3 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...SOUTH AND WEST END OF THE ISLAND...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER
  MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...ACROSS THE SOUTH TO WEST PART OF KODIAK ISLAND...RAIN
  WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
  WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH SEVERELY REDUCED
  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND INCLUDING
  KODIAK CITY...THE REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT WILL BE DURING THE
  LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG WELL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY...SNOW
  INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND HELP
  OVERALL VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ121-140230-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0011.140314T0900Z-140315T0300Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
516 AM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AROUND KACHEMAK BAY...

* LOCATION...AROUND KACHEMAK BAY INCLUDING THE HOMER BLUFF.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT 
  TIMES. 

* WIND...WEST 25 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
  TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS
  WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
  CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ALONG WITH SNOW
  INTENSITY TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH SEVERELY REDUCED
  VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

JAM

547 
WWAK41 PAFC 140004
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...STRONG STORM TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO KODIAK ISLAND AND
KACHEMAK BAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND WILL TRACK NORTH JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING UP COOK INLET ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC AIR WITH STRONG
WINDS WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION PRECIPITATION
TO ALL SNOW AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY. THE WORST CONDITIONS START WITH SOUTHWEST KODIAK ISLAND
THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS NORTH AND TO KACHEMAK BAY FRIDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

AKZ121-141315-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0011.140314T0900Z-140315T0300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0013.140314T1500Z-140315T0800Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
404 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND KACHEMAK BAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...AROUND KACHEMAK BAY INCLUDING THE HOMER BLUFF.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH FRIDAY MORNING
  BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
  MORNING. AS THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW...WINDS WILL BEGIN
  SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THEN WEST WITH SNOW CHARACTER BECOMING
  INCREASINGLY DRIER WITH TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ALONG
  WITH SNOW INTENSITY TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH SEVERELY
  REDUCED VISIBILITY BEGINNING FIRST NEAR SELDOVIA DURING THE MORNING
  HOURS AND THEN EXPAND NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE KACHEMAK BAY
  AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
  SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ171-141315-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.140314T0200Z-140314T1800Z/
KODIAK ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KODIAK CITY
404 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...KODIAK ISLAND AND AFOGNAK ISLAND. 

* SNOW...3 TO 12 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD AFOGNAK
  ISLAND...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NEAR KODIAK CITY.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...ACROSS THE SOUTH TO WEST PART OF KODIAK ISLAND...RAIN 
  WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS 
  WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH SEVERELY REDUCED 
  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND INCLUDING 
  KODIAK CITY...THE REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT WILL BE DURING THE 
  LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE 
  WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG WELL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY...
  SNOW INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND HELP 
  OVERALL VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED MAR 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN STEERING UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA. THERE IS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WITH THIS LOW IS ALONG 150 WEST LONGITUDE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...THEN CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO KODIAK
ISLAND...THEN "BENDS BACK" OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. VERY COLD AIR
IS SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS BENT BACK OCCLUSION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY CLOSE...AND THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. EVEN THE
NAM LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD...IF MAYBE A BIT FAST WITH THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS FRONT...STARTING AS SNOW AND
THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS AS WARM AIR PUSHES IN.
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH DOWN-SLOPE DRYING.
WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND NEARBY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT TO MINIMAL WARNING LEVELS (GUSTS TO 75 MPH). THE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THIS LOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR. POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT ON KODIAK AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THE KACHEMAK BAY AREA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS LOW.
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THIS COLD AIR WILL REACH ANCHORAGE
WITH SNOW A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BENT-BACK
OCCLUSION (AND THEN ITS REMNANTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON). WARM AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT...BUT THEN COLD AIR WILL SURGE BACK EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN FAVORABLE DYNAMICS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 141 150
                        155 160 165 170 172 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 160 165 170 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14