Gale Warning 187, NWS Anchorage, AK

177 
FZAK51 PAFC 122136 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1235 PM WED FEB 12 2014

UPDATED 130 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF STRENGTHENS INTO A
977 MB LOW 30 NM NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND BY WED EVENING...THEN
MEANDERS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE
MAINTAINING STRENGTH. 

$$

PKZ119-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-130300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-130300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-130300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
1235 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-130300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-130300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1235 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-130300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

883 
FZAK51 PAFC 121556 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

UPDATED 119 120 131 139 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF STRENGTHENS INTO A
977 MB LOW 30 NM NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND BY WED EVENING...THEN
MEANDERS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE
MAINTAINING STRENGTH. 

$$

PKZ119-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-130300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-130300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-130300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-130300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-130300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-130300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
655 AM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

817 
FZAK51 PAFC 130008
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 MB COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-131500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE 
EVENING.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-131500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-131500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-131500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-131500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-131500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-131500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-131500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-131500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-131500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-131500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-131500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-131500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-131500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-131500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-131500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-131500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 12 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
805 PM AKST TUE FEB 11 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGESTING THAT BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF
IS ALREADY CONGEALING INTO A MORE DEFINED SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND WITH AN ORGANIZING SHIELD OF SNOW. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD MEANDER
JUST OFF SHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN
NOSING NORTHWARD BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE REVISED SNOW
SHOWERS TO STEADY SNOW FOR THE CORDOVA AREA BY WED AFTERNOON AND HAVE
TRENDED SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS INTO WED EVENING. ACROSS NORTHEAST
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SPECIFICALLY THOMPSON PASS...BRISK NORTH
WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO PUSHING
WIND CHILLS INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY TERRITORY. HAVE ISSUED ADVISORY
THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BRISK...
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARMING OF AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP
MODIFY THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS. ACROSS SOUTHERN KACHEMAK BAY...NARROW
BAND OF SLOW MOVING SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH SELDOVIA AREA. LOCAL
WRF MODEL SHOWED A VERY NARROW SLIVER OF AROUND 3" SNOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS...THOUGH THIS MAY BE DISPLACED TOO
FAR SOUTH. HAVE REVISED FORECAST AROUND KACHEMAK BAY FOR SOME SNEAKY
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS STABLE AND FEATURES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS UNDER COLD AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
BRINGING A THIN BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY
STRETCHING BACK THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. A LINGERING SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF CONTINUES TO PULL RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE FAVORED GAPS
ALONG THE COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE OVER MUCH OF THE BERING IS BRINGING UNSEASONABLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO MANY LOCATIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN OUTSTANDING OVERALL AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS BRING THE
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTH SLOPE DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW
WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT
DEVELOPS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF FOR THE 2ND HALF
OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HARDLY
MOVING...IT MAKES SENSE THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS
SPINNING UNDERNEATH THE PARENT UPPER LOW. THE EXACT POSITION OF THESE
CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL CONTROL WHETHER THE COOK INLET REGION GETS
ANY SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE NAM LOOKS TO BE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THE UPPER CENTER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS...AND WILL LEAN
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE NAM FOR THIS REASON WITH PREPARATION OF THE
AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...A FEW PASSING CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THE
LEADING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST IS
WHETHER ANCHORAGE AND THE REST OF THE COOK INLET REGION WILL SEE MUCH
(IF ANY) SNOW AS THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD BRING
SOME OVERRUNNING/WARM ADVECTION TO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION LIKELY MINIMIZING DOWNSLOPING AND
LEADING TO THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR...CONFIDENCE
IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS
THROUGH THE GAPS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH
LOW-DENSITY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS LATER THIS WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
HAZARD ISSUANCE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY AROUND
THOMPSON PASS.

SOUTHWEST...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE
REGION WILL BE THE ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS LOOKS TO RIVAL THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. COMBINING WITH THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MAINLAND TO
ADVISORY LEVELS. THUS WILL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING FRIDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ELONGATE
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF UPTICK TO WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL
BAY/EASTERN BERING SEA AS COLD AIR BEGINS A MASS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD.
THIS WILL KEEP AREAS FROM DUTCH HARBOR EASTWARD IN STEADY SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH INTO THE EXTENDED TERM AS
THE DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC LOOKS TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW.
MEANWHILE...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE BERING
AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH AND PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 152 155 161
MARINE...GALE 127 130 131 132 150 160 165 175 176 177 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 138 150 160 165
                              180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD/CC/CB FEB 14