Gale Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

629 
FZAK61 PAFC 141250
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 969 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 58N 155W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 61N 147W AT
979 MB THIS EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE
TUE NIGHT AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN GULF WED AFTERNOON. A 988 MB
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 57N 148W THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 27 FT
SUBSIDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 27 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH GENERALLY DOMINANT OVER THE AOR...WITH SHARP
UPPER-LVL RIDGING OVER THE NE PACIFIC. AN UPPER-LOW IN THE NW BERING
SEA IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST. RESIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
THROUGH THE FLOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR SW AK KEPT PRECIP
LINGERING IN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...BUT HAVE LARGELY PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE AOR. THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH THE FLOW
TURNING SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND. THUS
MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP IS UNDERWAY FOR THE MAINLAND. THE LOW CENTERED
AROUND 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 967 MB IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW AND RAIN HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
AKPEN PUSHING TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GALES
HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO MARINE AREAS OF THE GULF AND WATERS OFFSHORE
THE AKPEN. THERE IS ALSO A LOW AROUND 700 MILES SOUTH OF KISKA MOVING
EAST WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
IN THE AOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ADEQUATE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...BUT NOT
GREAT. OUT WEST...THE LOW SOUTH OF KISKA TRACKS TO AROUND 200 MILES
SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI BY WED...THEN TO NEAR UNALASKA ON THU. THE GFS AND
NAM DO NOT TRACK THIS FEATURE AS FAR NORTH AS QUICKLY...BUT DO SHOW A
DEEPER/STRONGER LOW WITH A LARGER ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELD.
BECAUSE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOWER CLOSER TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IT
ALSO ALLOWS FOR WARMER AIR (TRANSITION TO RAIN) AND A MORE RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EASTERN CHAIN/BERING WITH FROPA MID WEEK.
THE GFS/NAM BY CONTRAST KEEP STRONGER WINDS AROUND LONGER WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES (HIGHER CHANCE OF SNOW). HAVE TENDED TO SIDE WITH THE
WARMER SOLUTION AS THE ECMWF HAS HAD BETTER TRACK RECORD OF LATE WITH
THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS.

FURTHER EAST...THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF/KODIAK. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED
POORLY...BUT THE 18Z RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE 967 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HOMER AT 971 MB TUE MORNING THEN PUSH ASHORE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
NEAR VALDEZ AT 979 MB BY EARLY TUE EVENING. ALOFT...MODELS SHOW THE
LOW'S SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CLEARING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK
DURING BY TUE EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH ALOFT
COUPLED WILL SIGNAL THE START OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE NE
PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED N PAC LOW
SOUTH OF KISKA DEEPENING THE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THE LOW WILL HELP PUSH
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GULF ON WED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
850 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OF -7 CELSIUS WED MORNING
ARE SHOWN WARMING TO AROUND 0 CELSIUS BY THU MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES BECOME WIDESPREAD IN SCOPE...PUSH INLAND...AND ARE GIVEN
AN ADDED BOOST OF WARMING BY A SURFACE WAVE THAT TRACKS FROM THE
PACIFIC SUBTROPICS TO AROUND 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WED
AFTERNOON THAT PUSHES TOWARDS THE KENAI PENINSULA ON THU.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
THE SNOW AND RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD TAPER TO OFF TO PASSING
SHOWERS BY MIDDAY TUE AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY USHERING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST OFF-SHORE FLOW. MARINE AREAS OF THE GULF WILL
SEE MIN GALE FORCE SOUTH TO EASTERLIES SHIFT TO A STRONGER SW GALES
NEAR STORM FORCE WITH THE FAST MOVING LOW. THE NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONGER WARM FRONT AND SUSTAINED PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED INTO KODIAK ISLAND.

THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF WORK UP
TONIGHT. ALL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SHOULD START AS
SNOW...THOUGH MINOR WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SOME MIXING WITH RAIN
FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ON TAP FOR INTERIOR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE PASSES OF THE
KENAI PENISNULA. NORTH AND WEST OF THE CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A STRONGER SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BEGINS
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING. THIS SE FLOW HAS ALREADY MANIFESTED A BIT WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY. THE DOWNSLOPING
DIMINISHES BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WORKS UP TOWARDS VALDEZ. SOME
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF  STEADY SNOW TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUE
EVENING. A BRIEF LULL THEN OCCURS UNTIL IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
WARM FRONT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVE UP TO THE MAINLAND THE
LATTER PART OF WED.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...
LAST VESTIGES OF SHOWERS FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/VALLEY THIS EVENING. PERIPHERAL SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM NEARING
KODIAK ISLAND ALREADY FILLING IN ON THE KING SALMON RADAR AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE AHKLUN AND ALEUTIAN RANGES DUE TO ADDED UPSLOPE
LIFT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. PENDING
TEMPERATURES...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SHOULD BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY SNOW BEING SOMEWHAT
WET. THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY
ALLOWING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF. LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL...A LULL EXPECTED TUE
NIGHT BEFORE IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT STORM MOVE UP WED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
UPPER-LOW CONTINUES TO KEEP INSTABILITY SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE
CHAIN AND BERING SEA. THE FEATURE WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH ONLY
SOME DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND STEADY STATE. SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RETURN SOME GALES
TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SOUTH OF
KISKA BEGINS TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO BE WET SNOW INITIALLY WITH THAT FEATURE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WHILE THE DETAILS GET MURKY WITH SOME SPECIFIC FEATURES AND
TIMING...THE SPIRIT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGH QPF AND
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR IS SHOWN CONTINUING RIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT. THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND FEATURES A BREAKDOWN IN THE WARM PATTERN TO MORE SEASONABLE
AIR AS STORMS SCOOTING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND THE UPPER-LOW
IN THE BERING PUSH UP AGAINST THE STOUT RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...119 120 130 131 132 150 155 170 172 173 174 181 185
                351 352 411
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179 180 181 185 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY