Gale Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

992 
FZAK61 PAFC 222345
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 22 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH MON MORNING. A 995 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 54N 150W
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES TO 56N 156W MONDAY MORNING AT THE
SAME STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 22 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 22 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

265 
FZAK61 PAFC 231231
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240300-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH TUE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
$$

PKZ351-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

455 
FZAK61 PAFC 232348
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH MON EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 984 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
INTENSIFIES TO 968 MB NEAR 46N 147W TUE MORNING...THEN TRACKS TO 52N
156W AT 970 MB LATE TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 25 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 25 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

266 
FZAK61 PAFC 241239
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 24 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STATIONARY WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SW GULF WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 49N 149W TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 53N
156W AT 975 MB EARLY WED MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT TRACKS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUE.
$$

PKZ351-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 24 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 24 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
TO 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

593 
FZAK61 PAFC 242346
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 24 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251300-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM A 1001 MB LOW AT 56N 155W WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 973 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR
42N 145W WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST TO 54N 161W AT 979 MB BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF BY WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-251300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 24 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT EARLY BECOMING E 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-251300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 24 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI FEB 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STORM IN THE CENTRAL BERING IS USHERING IN A NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN.
A RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING AND MOVING INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DEEPENING OVER THE BERING SEA.
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A 125 KT SOUTHERLY JET FEEDING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO A 964 MB LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING
THROUGHOUT BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR IS SURGING NORTHWARD AND WILL BE CREATING AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IS QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MEANWHILE...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS
EXPERIENCING A SLOW INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE BERING
SYSTEM EXPANDS NORTHWARD. KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS SEEING PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE FRONT STALLS THIS EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
SHIFT. THE 12Z NAM HAD BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING REMNANT FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND UPPER COOK INLET THIS
EVENING...AND THE 18Z NAM HAS COME CLOSER INTO LINE WITH THE DRIER
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATIONS THAT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL BE IN HOW STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WEAK FEATURES IN FAST FLOW IS A COMMON SETUP FOR THE MODELS
TO STRUGGLE WITH...AND WILL OPT FOR A CONSENSUS-BASED APPROACH FOR
THE FORECAST WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL REMAIN LARGELY INSULATED
FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...KODIAK ISLAND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
COMING DAYS...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BEING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN RECENT DAYS AS WELL AS DAILY
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WARMER THAN NORMAL BY
THE START OF THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE BIG CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL-SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS KING
SALMON...THOUGH THIS WILL ALL BE CHANGING AS WARM AIR SURGES
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN EVENTUALLY RAIN...BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS IF
THIS WILL HAPPEN IN TIME FOR APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AND HAVE AN IMPACT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
DILLINGHAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING UP INTO THE DELTA
DURING THE EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER THE AREA. THE 964 MB LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN BERING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD RUSSIA BY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE REGION IN A FAIRLY SHOWERY PATTERN WITH
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND HALTS
ANY PROGRESSION IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAINLAND IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS INLAND...WHILE THE
EASTERN BERING AND KODIAK ISLAND REMAINS THE SCENE OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 155
         FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 161
MARINE...STORM 185
         GALE 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 150 155 160 165 170 173 174
              175 176 178 179 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD FEB 14