Gale Warning 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST FRI FEB 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MORNING WEATHER MAP SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER MOST
OF THE BERING SEA WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS A POTENT 150 KT NORTHEASTERLY
JET STREAK. AS EXPECTED THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF DEVELOPED RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE COOK
INLET REGION...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THE WESTERN GULF...AND THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS NOW IN THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. OUT WEST...VERY
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE BERING SEA AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE MAINLAND. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND...WHICH IS DEPICTED BY ALL AVAILABLE
MODELS. THIS WILL BUMP WINDS AGAIN THROUGH THE FAVORED GAPS ALONG THE
COAST...BUT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS WINDS FROM THE CURRENT
STORM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW
GRADIENTS TO RELAX QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH KODIAK ISLAND THE LAST
LOCATION TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. THIS WILL BRING WINDS
STEADILY DOWNWARD AT VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS...ALSO IMPROVING
UNSEASONABLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...BUMPING WINDS BACK UP THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND OTHER FAVORED GAPS...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW WHAT HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCED DURING TODAYS STORM. THIS NEXT COLD SURGE WILL ALSO
BE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY...WITH ONLY COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SOUTHWEST...WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WINDS AND
CLOUDCOVER WILL DECREASE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
SURGE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING IN SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT WILL
REMAIN DRY AT ALL LOCATIONS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW WARNING LEVELS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
STAY VERY GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CHAIN FROM DUTCH HARBOR EASTWARD. SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO POINTS ALONG THE
CHAIN FROM DUTCH HARBOR EASTWARD...AS COLD AIR COMING OFF THE
MAINLAND ENHANCES SNOWFALL. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
UNSHAKABLE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...LEADING TO RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT WEEK THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL
MIGRATE BACK INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL SINK DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. SOME DETAILS ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS CONCERNED BUT DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALIKE ALL BRING A SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH AN UPPER LOW. THAT PATTERN VERBATIM WOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL. UNTIL THEN
COLD...DRY...AND WINDY WILL PREVAIL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 181 185
         BLIZZARD WARNING 121
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 171
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 126 127 130 139 140 160 180 181 185 414
         STORM 130 160 170 180
         GALE 119 120 131 132 136 137 138 139 140 150 155 165 171 172
              173 174 175 176 179 181
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111 121

AMD FEB 14