Gale Warning 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

711 
FZAK52 PAFC 010008
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN BERING THIS EVENING AND SPREAD TO THE WESTERN BERING ON SUN.
$$

PKZ150-011500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-011500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-011500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM ATKA E. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF ATKA. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF ATKA. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 10 KT FROM ATKA E. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF ATKA. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF ATKA. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-011500-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-011500-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS
22 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-011500-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-011500-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...15 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...18 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...18 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKST THU JAN 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE ABNORMALLY STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS
WEAKENED...BUT MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE GENERAL
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. GAP WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING AROUND THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS AS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST COMBINES WITH RISING PRESSURES
OVER INTERIOR AREAS. A WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA IS SEPARATED FROM UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND IS
BEING RAPIDLY BROKEN DOWN BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ABATING AS THE
OVERALL STORM WEAKENS RAPIDLY FROM THE BOTTOM UP. FURTHER WEST...A
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING
EASTWARD AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY INTO FAR EASTERN
RUSSIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
FOR MOST PURPOSES THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING...DRIVEN NORTH BY AN
AMPLIFYING BERING SEA RIDGE ON SATURDAY. THE STRUGGLE WAS HOW FAR
NORTH THIS LOW WOULD BE PUSHED BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD AND DROPPING
BACK SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE STRENGTH OF A
CORRESPONDING JET STREAK OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE ECMWF WAS THE
FIRST TO DEPICT A STRONGER JET...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN SIBERIA AND RESULTING STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...ALL MODELS BUT THE GFS HAVE
SHOWED A PRONOUNCED MOVEMENT TOWARD THIS MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND WILL BE USED IN THE GENERATION OF THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. THANKFULLY...THIS FEATURE WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
OTHER THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER TO MOST AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AND EVEN INTENSIFIES OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST EMERGING
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING GAP WINDS THROUGH
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS WHITTIER...SEWARD...AND THE VALDEZ AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR WARNING
LEVELS...AS THE KEY INGREDIENT OF COLD AIR IN INTERIOR ALASKA IS
LACKING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF
MAY ALLOW AREAS LIKE THOMPSON PASS TO APPROACH THE 40-50 MPH RANGE BY
THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST...MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL KEEP SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINES...THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
PARTICULAR SIGNIFICANT...BUT WILL DELAY THE BREAKOUT OF WIDESPREAD
SUNSHINE UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN OFFSHORE FLOW AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
COOLING TREND BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A WEATHER FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TO THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVEL AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION KEEPS THE
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
INDICATIONS CONTINUE THAT A HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN MAY KEEP
MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER AT BAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES AT
MOST PLACES...UNUSUALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...MEANING NO NEW
SNOWFALL IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL AND LITTLE
MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW AROUND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 131
MARINE...STORM 178
         GALE 177
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 14