Freezing Rain Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST TUE JAN 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA IN DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH SOME SNOW
MIXING IN OVER COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...A 978 MB SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING IS BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
BERING WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IN STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ENHANCING
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AS THEY TRACK THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THE
NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TO IMPACT THE BERING LOOKS TO TAKE A VERY
SIMILAR PATH TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AS IT APPROACHES THE AKPEN ON
THURSDAY AND TRACKS EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS ON FRIDAY...ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN BERING. MAINLY UTILIZED AN EC/GFS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST
GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. ALSO USED SOME NAM OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR INCREASED RESOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE DISTURBANCE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION LOCATED ALONG THE COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM
AS WELL AS THE CORDOVA AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL MIX IN WITH WET SNOW OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...WHERE AREAS WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY COULD SEE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND COOK INLET. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD PAST SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TODAY. OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOFS.

THE NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. AT THIS
TIME THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT FARTHER WEST BUT SHOWS SIMILAR
STRENGTH TO THE PREVIOUS LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS AND A SIMILAR
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WITH THE PREVIOUS LOW CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT THIS ACTIVE AND WARM PATTERN BREAKING DOWN
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOTHING WORTH LATCHING ONTO AT THIS POINT. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE COMING DAYS. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 119
         GALE 120 125 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 179
              351 352 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185 411
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB/SCHRECK JAN 14