Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
741 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 328 WHICH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEASTERN
SD COUNTIES UNTIL 8Z. THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER SO CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR WEST OF THE MISSOURI. A
NUMBER OF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD
AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TORNADO
WATCH 332 WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER CENTRAL SD WITH MODELS SHOWING
DESTABILIZATION FURTHER EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
EASTERN CWA REMAINS CAPPED BUT EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST. HI RES MODELS
SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SOLUTION...WITH CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OVER CENTRAL SD DEPICTED DECENTLY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL SD...THEN BY 00Z OR SO
THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY. MAY HAVE TO CUT
BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA AS IT APPEARS THEY WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SVR PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOES
SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AS WELL. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

ON THURSDAY...LINGERING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AS SFC
TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS...BUT WITHIN BEST REGION OF ASCENT WITHIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM/FRONT THEN MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY. REALLY CANNOT RULE OUT
ANY TIME PERIOD THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY POP UP...THOUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA STRETCHING FROM KMBG TO BUFFALO COUNTY SD. THESE WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-191000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 /349 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TORNADO          10 E STEPHAN            44.25N  99.25W
06/18/2014                   HAND               SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE-QUARTER MILE WIDE TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR 216TH ST
            AND 346TH AVE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400445

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TORNADO          5 E STEPHAN             44.25N  99.36W
06/18/2014                   HYDE               SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO HOMES LOST ROOF FROM TORNADO. TIME APPROXIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400446

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E GANN VALLEY         44.03N  98.97W
06/18/2014  E60 MPH          BUFFALO            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME HAIL WITH 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400447

KG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
658 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TORNADO          3 E GANN VALLEY         44.03N  98.93W
06/18/2014                   BUFFALO            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400448

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
734 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 W LONG LAKE          45.86N  99.41W
06/18/2014  M63 MPH          MCPHERSON          SD   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE SAND LAKE RAWS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400449

FOWLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
735 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

SDZ010-017-190100-
EDMUNDS-FAULK-
735 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL EDMUNDS
AND NORTHERN FAULK COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 733 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOYALTON...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
IPSWICH...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE ROSCOE.

WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

CONNELLY