Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1228 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPIRE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1149 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SQUALL LINE OF +TSRA...GUSTY WINDS...CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL
STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF CAO TO TCC TO JUST WEST OF FORT
SUMNER AND ROW AS OF 06Z. THIS WILL STRONGLY IMPACT TCC AND ROW
WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS THROUGH ROUGHLY 08Z OR 09Z WITH
ONSET AND END JUST A BIT LATER AT ROW THAN TCC. EXPECTING AREAS OF
MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN
PLAINS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ALL THE WAY WEST TO EAST SLOPES OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. AFTER 09Z PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LESS
CONVECTIVE AND MORE STRATIFORM. ELSEWHERE STILL A FEW -SHRA AND
-TSRA AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT...BUT
IMPACTS MUCH LESS THAN IN THE EAST. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE REST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN INTO AT LEAST MID MORN SAT. RADAR TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT
AND DECAY OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE RATHER FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS. SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY MAINLY
AFTER 17Z WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSRA TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST AND SE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MEETS UP WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW STRAY STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BATCHES OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO THEN REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCHES CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO. BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY STORMS WILL BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN PLAINS...

.DISCUSSION...
AND SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY SEEN ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THUS...SOME GRADUAL FILLING IN OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED AS IT VERY
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. NAM WAS PEGGING SOME IMPRESSIVE H3
DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY WHAT IS
DRIVING THE BULK OF CURRENT CONVECTION AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DIVERGENT AREA WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING WITH SOME BROADER/WEAKER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AIDING THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING WHEN FULL
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN REACHED. FOR TONIGHT POP TRENDS ARE
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES STAYING ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
THREAT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH
EVENING...TURNING MORE TOWARD AN ELEVATED OR NON-SURFACE-BASED
MODE THEREAFTER. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MORPH INTO A WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM EVENT TOWARD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DEPENDENT ON ANY
LOBES OF VORTICITY GETTING SHED NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES REMAIN BLANKETED IN LIKELY POPS FOR
SATURDAY AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF
NM. CONTINUED FETCH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SPREAD OVER
THESE AREAS IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DIG ITS
WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS DRY PUNCH...BUT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT HEALTHY DEWPOINTS INTACT OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME DRYING IN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST...BUT A LATE INITIATION
TIME MIGHT BE IN ORDER DEPENDING ON TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY. SEVERE
THREAT WILL STILL BE INTACT IN THE EAST WITH EVEN BETTER MID
LEVEL FLOW ADDING TO BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS...AND IF A SHARP
INTERFACE DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...THIS COULD
ENHANCE SEVERE DISCRETE STORMS.

INTO SUNDAY THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A MORE WOBBLY
PATH AND SLOWER TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW. RATHER THAN CONTINUING
EAST NORTHEAST IT SEEMS AS THOUGH ELONGATING AND PINWHEELING
LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE ADDING SOME ANGULAR MOMENTUM AND STEERING
THE LOW A BIT MORE NORTH...JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM WITH
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE EVEN RECOVERING A BIT IN SOME CENTRAL ZONES.

BY MONDAY THE LOW RESUMES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...HOWEVER...BEING CUT OFF AND DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR
JET THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MOVE SLOWER THAN
CURRENTLY PROGNOSES INDICATE. HAVE INCREASED POPS MORE FOR
MONDAY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BY TUESDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHOW SIGNS OF CLOSING IN CLOSER TO THE STATE.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A DRASTIC
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RECYCLING
WILL STILL YIELD A FEW STORMS. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE COMING INTO
THE EAST...A SCENARIO THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE ENTHUSED ABOUT
COMPARED TO ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SW
ARIZONA HELPING IGNITE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET FIRE WEATHER
PERIOD.

A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...LEAVING CLEARER SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE GILA MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SOIL
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AND FAIR OVER THE GILAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL BEGIN LIFTING NE SATURDAY...AND CENTER
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY. MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE NORTHERN MTS
AND EASTERN PLAINS FAVORED SATURDAY AND THE NORTHERN MTS FAVORED
SUNDAY. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO SW NM...BUT THE MOISTURE DEFICIT SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN EACH DAY...BECOMING WELL
BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH GENERALLY WEAKER WINDS AND LOWERING
MIXING HEIGHTS...VENT RATES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH NW
NM SEEING FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES AND GOOD VENT RATES MOST OTHER
AREAS.

RECENT MODEL TRENDS NOW INDICATE THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE
SE MONDAY...CENTERING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERNS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  ON MEMORIAL DAY THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE
NORTHERN MTS AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREAS...BUT
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXIST WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING MONDAY...THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL ALSO START TO TREND
DOWN...BECOMING FAIR WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND GOOD TO
EXCELLENT EAST.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS
EAST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...AND COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MID
WEEK...AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH TEMPS AREA WIDE AND DECREASING
MIN AND MAX RH VALUES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

NMZ501>540-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
538 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...CHAVES...ROOSEVELT...DE BACA...CURRY...SOUTHERN QUAY
AND SOUTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR FLOODING AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ROY TO ROSWELL. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR
FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
BY SUNDAY EVENING.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

NMZ539-540-240645-
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
1154 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND WESTERN
CHAVES COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM MDT...

AT 1148 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELK...OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF
CLOUDCROFT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND WESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 10537 3296 10536 3298 10533 3329 10533
      3333 10532 3313 10490 3309 10488 3284 10526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 215DEG 24KT 3297 10528

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1236 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014

NMZ538-240700-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
1236 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY THROUGH 100
AM MDT...

AT 1230 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARTESIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES TOWARD LAKE ARTHUR.

OTHER AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HAGERMAN AND GREENFIELD.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 10447 3318 10425 3310 10409 3295 10421
      3296 10449 3296 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 0636Z 208DEG 22KT 3291 10439

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1244 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014

NMZ538-240715-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
1244 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY THROUGH 115
AM MDT...

AT 1236 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEXTER...OR ABOUT 17 MILES
SOUTH OF ROSWELL...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROSWELL...DEXTER...BOTTOMLESS
LAKES STATE PARK...GREENFIELD AND MIDWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10453 3332 10417 3311 10436 3311 10456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 200DEG 19KT 3317 10442

GUYER