Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
606 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY DULCE TO SAN YSIDRO MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND
MAY EXPAND SOME OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR MASS AND ONGOING SHRA
AND TSRA. SHRA AND TSRA...A FEW OF THE LATTER POSS SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS...WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE CONTINUING IN LESS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
AND WITH LOWER SEVERE RISK SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
BERNALILLO AND SOCORRO COUNTY ON WESTWARD. AFTER 07Z PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE AND MORE STRATIFORM. SOME MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE
REST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA THIS
EVENING AFTERNOON AT SAF...LVS...ROW...ABQ...AEG AND TO A SLIGHTLY
LESSER DEGREE TCC...GUP AND FMN. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT IMPACTS A TERMINAL SITE. RADAR
TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT AND DECAY OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE RATHER FREQUENT AMENDMENTS. SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSRA TO BE A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND SE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MEETS UP WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW STRAY STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BATCHES OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO THEN REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCHES CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO. BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY STORMS WILL BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN PLAINS...

.DISCUSSION...
AND SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY SEEN ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THUS...SOME GRADUAL FILLING IN OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED AS IT VERY
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. NAM WAS PEGGING SOME IMPRESSIVE H3
DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY WHAT IS
DRIVING THE BULK OF CURRENT CONVECTION AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DIVERGENT AREA WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING WITH SOME BROADER/WEAKER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AIDING THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING WHEN FULL
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN REACHED. FOR TONIGHT POP TRENDS ARE
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES STAYING ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
THREAT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH
EVENING...TURNING MORE TOWARD AN ELEVATED OR NON-SURFACE-BASED
MODE THEREAFTER. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MORPH INTO A WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM EVENT TOWARD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DEPENDENT ON ANY
LOBES OF VORTICITY GETTING SHED NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES REMAIN BLANKETED IN LIKELY POPS FOR
SATURDAY AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF
NM. CONTINUED FETCH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SPREAD OVER
THESE AREAS IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DIG ITS
WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS DRY PUNCH...BUT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT HEALTHY DEWPOINTS INTACT OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME DRYING IN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST...BUT A LATE INITIATION
TIME MIGHT BE IN ORDER DEPENDING ON TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY. SEVERE
THREAT WILL STILL BE INTACT IN THE EAST WITH EVEN BETTER MID
LEVEL FLOW ADDING TO BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS...AND IF A SHARP
INTERFACE DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...THIS COULD
ENHANCE SEVERE DISCRETE STORMS.

INTO SUNDAY THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A MORE WOBBLY
PATH AND SLOWER TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW. RATHER THAN CONTINUING
EAST NORTHEAST IT SEEMS AS THOUGH ELONGATING AND PINWHEELING
LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE ADDING SOME ANGULAR MOMENTUM AND STEERING
THE LOW A BIT MORE NORTH...JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM WITH
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE EVEN RECOVERING A BIT IN SOME CENTRAL ZONES.

BY MONDAY THE LOW RESUMES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...HOWEVER...BEING CUT OFF AND DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR
JET THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MOVE SLOWER THAN
CURRENTLY PROGNOSES INDICATE. HAVE INCREASED POPS MORE FOR
MONDAY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BY TUESDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHOW SIGNS OF CLOSING IN CLOSER TO THE STATE.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A DRASTIC
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RECYCLING
WILL STILL YIELD A FEW STORMS. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE COMING INTO
THE EAST...A SCENARIO THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE ENTHUSED ABOUT
COMPARED TO ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SW
ARIZONA HELPING IGNITE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET FIRE WEATHER
PERIOD.

A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...LEAVING CLEARER SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE GILA MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SOIL
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AND FAIR OVER THE GILAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL BEGIN LIFTING NE SATURDAY...AND CENTER
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY. MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE NORTHERN MTS
AND EASTERN PLAINS FAVORED SATURDAY AND THE NORTHERN MTS FAVORED
SUNDAY. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO SW NM...BUT THE MOISTURE DEFICIT SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN EACH DAY...BECOMING WELL
BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WITH GENERALLY WEAKER WINDS AND LOWERING
MIXING HEIGHTS...VENT RATES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH NW
NM SEEING FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES AND GOOD VENT RATES MOST OTHER
AREAS.

RECENT MODEL TRENDS NOW INDICATE THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE
SE MONDAY...CENTERING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERNS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  ON MEMORIAL DAY THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE
NORTHERN MTS AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREAS...BUT
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXIST WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING MONDAY...THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL ALSO START TO TREND
DOWN...BECOMING FAIR WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND GOOD TO
EXCELLENT EAST.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS
EAST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...AND COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MID
WEEK...AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH TEMPS AREA WIDE AND DECREASING
MIN AND MAX RH VALUES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

NMZ501>540-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
538 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...CHAVES...ROOSEVELT...DE BACA...CURRY...SOUTHERN QUAY
AND SOUTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR FLOODING AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ROY TO ROSWELL. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR
FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
BY SUNDAY EVENING.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
650 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

NMZ523-240130-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
650 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TORRANCE COUNTY THROUGH
730 PM MDT...

AT 642 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CEDARVALE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF
CORONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DURAN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 10577 3471 10570 3473 10569 3453 10531
      3444 10532 3433 10560 3433 10562
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 215DEG 17KT 3443 10562

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
659 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

NMZ523-533-240145-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
659 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TORRANCE AND WESTERN
GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM MDT...

AT 654 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENCINO...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF VAUGHN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN
TORRANCE AND WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 10544 3481 10504 3462 10538 3469 10552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 210DEG 23KT 3473 10538

SHY

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