Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Tucson, AZ

535 
WGUS75 KTWC 012027
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
127 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

AZC019-012200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130801T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
127 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 118 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING 8 TO 12 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON NEAR THE WRANGLER RANCHES AREA. THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL...BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES...HAS FALLEN MAINLY SOUTH OF 
PIMA MINE ROAD AND WEST OF MISSION ROAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 11122 3204 11106 3194 11106 3192 11118

$$

MEYER

056 
WGUS75 KTWC 012152
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

AZC019-012201-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130801T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
252 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM MST FOR EAST CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 250 PM MST SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN XAVIER 
MISSION AREA HAD GREATLY DIMINISHED. EARLIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN 
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY FLOW IN 
STREAMBEDS AND WASHES. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS 
STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF 
TUCSON.

LAT...LON 3202 11122 3204 11106 3194 11106 3192 11118

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUD WITH EMBEDDED WEAK CONVECTION
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE PLENTIFUL WITH 12Z KTWC SOUNDING COMING IN
WITH 1.65 AND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES A COMMON VALUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON
SOUNDING NOT THE BEST...SUGGESTING EASY MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT AND
MODEST OUTFLOW SUPPORT FOR ESPECIALLY EASTERN VALLEYS. SLOW MOVING
HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN. EARLIER UPDATE TO EMPHASIZE CLOUD COVER AND TO
KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES. HRRR HINTING AT A LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TIME FOR A FEW SLOW MOVING STORMS
SPREADING INTO ADDITIONAL VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THERE WAS AN MCS SOUTH OF GUYMAS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. OUTFLOW FOR THIS COMPLEX LIKELY
TO SEND UP A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE GULF TODAY. MOISTURE
IS BACK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING IN THE 1.45" TO
1.60" RANGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER TEXAS. SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HARD TO
PICK OUT WHICH DAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN ANOTHER. SO BASICALLY
KEPT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...THEN GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL. ISOLD TSRA INCREASING TO
SCT AFT 01/19Z...MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
THE KOLS AND KDUG TERMINALS THRU 02/05Z. WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS NEAR
ANY TSRA...AS WELL AS LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 02/16Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2013 FOR TUCSON GOES INTO THE RECORDS BOOKS AS THE
19TH WARMEST AND 38TH WETTEST ON RECORD. THE JULY CLIMATE REPORT FOR
TUCSON WILL BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING ON OUR WEBSITE...FACEBOOK
AND ON TWITTER.

AFTER DOUGLAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST ANY MONTH ON RECORD DURING JULY
WITH 10.12"...THE MAIN STORY DOWN THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
2013 MONSOON IS THEIR ATTEMPT AT RECORDING THE WETTEST MONSOON ON
RECORD. DOUGLAS IS CURRENTLY 5.67" FROM THE RECORD OF 15.90" THAT
OCCURRED IN 1964. DATING BACK TO 1948...THERE HAVE BEEN THIRTEEN
OCCURRENCES WHICH RECORDED MORE THAN 5.67" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MONSOON PERIOD. COMBINED NORMAL RAINFALL FOR AUGUST/SEPTEMBER IN
4.59". SINCE 1948...DOUGLAS HAS RECORD MORE THAN THE NORMAL TOTAL 27
TIMES. UNLESS SOMETHING REALLY ODD HAPPENS AT DOUGLAS AIRPORT...A
TOP 5 WETTEST MONSOON ON RECORD IS MOST DEFINITE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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