Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Tucson, AZ

157 
WGUS75 KTWC 011714
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1014 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

AZC003-011845-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130801T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
1014 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 1010 AM MST...THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE NOW JUST WEST AND NORTH 
OF BISBEE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE AREA. 
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND 
DRAINAGES...WHITEWATER DRAW AND SPRING CREEK.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 11008 3152 10978 3137 10976 3136 10997

$$

MEYER

889 
WGUS75 KTWC 011821
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1121 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

AZC003-011830-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130801T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
1121 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 1120 AM MST SHOWERS HAD GREATLY DIMINISHED AROUND THE BISBEE 
AREA. EXPECT HEAVY FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY STREAMBEDS AND WASHES TO 
CONTINUE TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER.

LAT...LON 3154 11008 3152 10978 3137 10976 3136 10997

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUD WITH EMBEDDED WEAK CONVECTION
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE PLENTIFUL WITH 12Z KTWC SOUNDING COMING IN
WITH 1.65 AND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES A COMMON VALUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ON
SOUNDING NOT THE BEST...SUGGESTING EASY MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT AND
MODEST OUTFLOW SUPPORT FOR ESPECIALLY EASTERN VALLEYS. SLOW MOVING
HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN. EARLIER UPDATE TO EMPHASIZE CLOUD COVER AND TO
KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES. HRRR HINTING AT A LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TIME FOR A FEW SLOW MOVING STORMS
SPREADING INTO ADDITIONAL VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THERE WAS AN MCS SOUTH OF GUYMAS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. OUTFLOW FOR THIS COMPLEX LIKELY
TO SEND UP A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE GULF TODAY. MOISTURE
IS BACK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING IN THE 1.45" TO
1.60" RANGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER TEXAS. SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HARD TO
PICK OUT WHICH DAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN ANOTHER. SO BASICALLY
KEPT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...THEN GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL. ISOLD TSRA INCREASING TO
SCT AFT 01/19Z...MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
THE KOLS AND KDUG TERMINALS THRU 02/05Z. WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS NEAR
ANY TSRA...AS WELL AS LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 02/16Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2013 FOR TUCSON GOES INTO THE RECORDS BOOKS AS THE
19TH WARMEST AND 38TH WETTEST ON RECORD. THE JULY CLIMATE REPORT FOR
TUCSON WILL BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING ON OUR WEBSITE...FACEBOOK
AND ON TWITTER.

AFTER DOUGLAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST ANY MONTH ON RECORD DURING JULY
WITH 10.12"...THE MAIN STORY DOWN THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
2013 MONSOON IS THEIR ATTEMPT AT RECORDING THE WETTEST MONSOON ON
RECORD. DOUGLAS IS CURRENTLY 5.67" FROM THE RECORD OF 15.90" THAT
OCCURRED IN 1964. DATING BACK TO 1948...THERE HAVE BEEN THIRTEEN
OCCURRENCES WHICH RECORDED MORE THAN 5.67" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MONSOON PERIOD. COMBINED NORMAL RAINFALL FOR AUGUST/SEPTEMBER IN
4.59". SINCE 1948...DOUGLAS HAS RECORD MORE THAN THE NORMAL TOTAL 27
TIMES. UNLESS SOMETHING REALLY ODD HAPPENS AT DOUGLAS AIRPORT...A
TOP 5 WETTEST MONSOON ON RECORD IS MOST DEFINITE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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