Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 26, 2013Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 26, 2013, 3:35 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 115 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 26, 2013, 3:35 PM MST (22:35 UTC)
Expired: Jul 26, 2013, 5:30 PM MST
In force: 115 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 917 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1463 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 2 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

629 
WGUS55 KTWC 262235
FFWTWC
AZC019-270030-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0023.130726T2235Z-130727T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 530 PM MST

* AT 326 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AVRA VALLEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF WASHES
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 11152 3249 11127 3246 11121 3237 11117
      3225 11121 3223 11156

$$

GL

1 follow-up statement

370 
WGUS75 KTWC 270026
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
526 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

AZC019-270036-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130727T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
526 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN HAD ENDED. THUS...THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE ON TIME. 

LAT...LON 3250 11152 3249 11127 3246 11121 3237 11117
      3225 11121 3223 11156

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 26, 1:31 PM MST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 26, 1:31 PM MST, 2 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
131 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
MONSOON WILL COMMENCE STARTING SATURDAY WITH FEWER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR EASTERN AREAS WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. INCREASED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE CHANCE OF STORMS
BACK TO MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FILL INTO THE VALLEY AREAS NICELY
AFTER BEING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVERS
GIVEN LACK OF STEERING. CAN'T RULE OUT A WET MICROBURST OR TWO AS
WELL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. BELIEVE THAT THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS THEN DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST REAL ACTIVE DAY FOR AWHILE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT RECENTERS ITSELF ACROSS SONORA ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY
AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE
COUNTIES WHERE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCES WESTWARD INTO TUCSON. BY
SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED SUCH THAT ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE
PEAK OF THE DOWNTREND OF THE MONSOON BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO
PICKUP FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FLOW CHANGES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW MORE MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH ABUNDANT CB IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 26/04Z. FAVORED TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT
TERMINALS IS THROUGH 25/24Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 26/04Z. CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRONG A ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS ON TAP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS VERY LOW...BUT MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.
TYPICAL LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT A WARM AND DRYING
TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH BREEZIER WEST WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 26, 2:28 PM MST, 1 hour 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
228 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

AZZ504-507-514-262215-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA
VISTA/BENSON AZ-
228 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MST...

AT 224 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUCSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CATALINA FOOTHILLS...SAGUARO
NATIONAL PARK EAST...AND SABINO CANYON.

LAT...LON 3233 11113 3249 11070 3229 11053 3210 11053
      3209 11094 3215 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 224DEG 14KT 3226 11085

Local storm report, Jul 26, 2:51 PM MST, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE SADDLEBROOKE       32.51N 110.88W
07/26/2013                   PINAL              AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SADDLEBROOK WASH IS BANK FULL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300081

GL

Local storm report, Jul 26, 2:52 PM MST, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUCSON                  32.24N 110.94W
07/26/2013                   PIMA               AZ   TWITTER

            DOWN POWER POLES AT PARK AND FAIR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300082

GL

Local storm report, Jul 26, 2:53 PM MST, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUCSON                  32.24N 110.94W
07/26/2013                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF BLOWN OFF AT VAN BUSKIRK ELEM

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300083

JM

Local storm report, Jul 26, 2:58 PM MST, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
258 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW SAGUARO NATIONAL P 32.24N 110.79W
07/26/2013                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING WAS OCCURRING NEAR SPEEDWAY AND HARRISON
            ROADS. WATER WAS FLOWING THROUGH NEARBY WASHES AS WELL
            THAT FEED INTO THE TANQUE VERDE RIVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300084

BROST

Local storm report, Jul 26, 2:59 PM MST, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
259 PM MST FRI JUL 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE ORO VALLEY         32.45N 110.94W
07/26/2013                   PIMA               AZ   TWITTER

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE NEAR RANCHO VISTOSO AND ORACLE.
            TEENAGER TRAPPED IN FLOODED WASH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300085

GL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 25, 5:17 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	28 min
Jul 26, 9:52 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Graham	38 min
Jul 26, 12:48 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 26, 1:08 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	52 min
Jul 26, 1:12 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 26, 1:31 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Graham	119 min
Jul 26, 1:44 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 26, 1:50 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	40 min
Jul 26, 2:02 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	118 min
Jul 26, 2:05 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	40 min
Jul 26, 2:17 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	118 min
Jul 26, 2:28 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		47 min
Jul 26, 2:41 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 26, 2:46 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 26, 2:54 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	111 min
Jul 26, 3:10 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	50 min
Jul 26, 3:29 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	31 min
Jul 26, 3:51 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2013 Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.