Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KFSM BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS A
STORM COMPLEX OUT WEST MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT...PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CARRIED FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND
IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH 06Z AS THE MAIN ACTION WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LATER.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 40. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BEING A BIGGER THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM AND DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT
AND HUMID. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ064-065-080545-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
1159 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 1159 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PADEN...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON AND WELTY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3566 9662 3576 9625 3541 9623 3542 9645
      3545 9645 3545 9648 3543 9649 3542 9652
      3545 9655 3542 9656 3542 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 269DEG 9KT 3551 9653